Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance journalist in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues and writes for multiple web magazines. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

For Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the extension of the Black Sea Grain Initiative, also known as the grain deal, seems to be one of the top priorities in Ankara's relations with Moscow. But for his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, turning Türkiye into a regional gas hub reportedly has a much higher importance than the document that allowed Ukraine to freely export its grains through the Black Sea ports.

Ever since Russia halted its participation in the grain deal on July 17, Erdogan has been trying to convince Putin to renew the agreement. It is not a secret that the Black Sea Grain Initiative – even though it was initially aimed at getting grain from Ukraine to world markets through the Black Sea and easing a global food crisis – has de facto turned Türkiye into a "grain hub." As a result, Ankara was one of the major beneficiaries of the deal signed in Istanbul on July 22, 2022, by Russia, Ukraine, Türkiye and the United Nations.

Thus, Moscow's potential decision to renew the agreement, or to sign a separate grain deal with Ankara, would undoubtedly have a positive impact on the Turkish crisis-hit economy. But Putin seems determined not to extend the Black Sea Grain Initiative, at least for now. It is the West, according to the Russian leader, that has essentially forced Moscow to terminate its participation in the initiative by failing to lift sanctions on Russian agricultural exports.

"The West deceived us about the grain deal. But if our conditions are met, we will come back into the agreement," Putin stressed on September 4 following the meeting he had with Erdogan in the Russian Black Sea resort of Sochi.

Russia has repeatedly demanded that its Agricultural Bank (Rosselkhozbank) be reconnected to the SWIFT international payments system after Western sanctions banned most Russian financial institutions from accessing it. But the West is not willing to make any concessions to the Kremlin, since it would represent a sign of weakness. That, however, does not mean that Moscow and Ankara will not eventually sign a bilateral grain deal.

Meanwhile, Ukraine may attempt to continue unilaterally implementing the Black Sea Grain Initiative, ignoring Russia's claims that any ships approaching Ukrainian ports will be treated as potential military vessels.

Türkiye will also undoubtedly continue pressuring the Kremlin to find a way to renew its participation in the grain deal. According to reports, Erdogan said that he would share Russia's "new recommendations" with the United Nations, which suggests that he will not easily give up on its ambitions to revive the Black Sea Initiative.

However, it is the Western countries, rather than the UN, that have imposed sanctions on Russian banks. Thus, there is very little that the UN can do about this issue. But Erdogan believes that Moscow and Ankara will "reach a solution that will meet the expectations in a short time."

Still, even though at this point, a new grain deal, which was likely Erdogan's major goal, does not seem to be on the horizon, the Turkish leader is unlikely to return to Ankara empty-handed. The fact that he and Putin discussed the construction of a new nuclear power plant in Sinop – on the northernmost edge of the Turkish side of the Black Sea coast – clearly indicates that the two nations aim to increase their energy cooperation.

Russia's Rosatom corporation is already involved in the construction of the Akkuyu nuclear plant in Turkish Mersin Province. If the company, despite the conflict in Ukraine and the Western sanctions on Russia, starts building another nuclear facility in NATO-member Türkiye, the Kremlin will almost certainly present it as a significant geopolitical victory over the West.

Moreover, after Russian energy corporation Gazprom submitted a draft roadmap on the creation of the gas hub in Türkiye, it became obvious that Russia no longer counts on a potential reconstruction of the Nord Stream pipelines that were blown up in September 2022. In other words, the Kremlin now sees Türkiye rather than Germany, as its major energy partner in Europe.

But the problem for Moscow is that Ankara, despite Erdogan's pragmatic approach regarding Russia, is the United States' crucial ally. Therefore, there is no guarantee that the Russian-Turkish energy cooperation will go as smoothly as some in the Kremlin might hope.

One thing is for sure – despite being traditional rivals and having opposing views on many geopolitical issues, as long as Putin and Erdogan are in charge, Russia and Türkiye will remain situational frenemies, and will continue implementing their policy of strategic pragmatism.

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