Business
2023.10.06 17:45 GMT+8

Resilient consumption during China's Golden Week holiday brightens long-term growth prospects

Updated 2023.10.06 17:45 GMT+8
Jimmy Zhu

Tourists buying flowers at Dounan flower market, Kunming, south China's Yunnan Province, October 3, 2023. /CFP

Editor's note: Jimmy Zhu is the chief strategist at Fullerton Research. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Resilient consumption during China's Golden Week holiday is bolstering the nation's long-term growth outlook and showcasing the strength and dynamism of its economy. A surge in consumer spending not only benefits businesses, but also sets in motion a positive economic cycle.

Data revealed that average daily consumption surged an impressive 153 percent during the period, compared with the same period in 2019, as reported by Meituan, a Chinese e-commerce platform, on October 5. The surge in consumer spending reflects not just an eagerness to celebrate, but also trust in the country's economic prospects.

Interestingly, even for those who choose not to travel during the National Day Golden Week, a plethora of attractive alternatives have emerged. Options such as concerts, movies, photography, and various forms of entertainment provide diverse ways for people to celebrate and spend their leisure time. This diversification in spending patterns has fostered a resilient and adaptable consumer base.

A striking example of this phenomenon can be seen in the entertainment industry. The domestic box office grossed an impressive 2.5 billion yuan (about $342.5 million) as of October 5, according to statistics from Dengta Data. The remarkable performance reflects a resurgence in the entertainment and leisure sector, fueled by enthusiastic consumer participation.

Increased consumer spending during special holiday periods, such as the National Day holiday week, is often indicative of higher consumer confidence. Consumers' views of economic stability, future job prospects and personal finances typically underpin their willingness to open their wallets and make purchases.

The performance of the retail sector during the holiday season, including sales data, provides insights into consumer behavior and preferences in China. Strong retail sales figures during the holiday season are indicative of robust consumer spending, which, when sustained, can be the driving force behind solid economic growth and potentially higher GDP.

The surge in consumer spending during the extended holiday season is perfectly aligned with the nation's efforts to boost domestic demand. It suggests that the Chinese government's incentives and promotions to stimulate domestic consumption are paying off.

In the past few months, relevant policies aimed at boosting consumption have spanned various sectors, categories and stakeholders. They have worked together to create a comprehensive policy framework designed to boost consumption and boost domestic demand.

This framework encompasses a wide range of consumer categories and service sectors, including, but not limited to, home appliances, automobile purchases, dining, retail, travel and sports. These policies reflect the trend of personalization and individualization in consumer behavior.

The policies are critical. Consumer spending is not an isolated event, it has created a multiplier effect within the Chinese economy and financial market. When consumers spend, businesses benefit, as do their suppliers, distributors and service providers. This multi-layered impact amplifies the overall economic benefits and creates a more robust economic ecosystem.

Strong consumer sentiment has boosted aggregate demand in the Chinese economy. Earlier data shows that the official purchasing managers' index (PMI) for China's manufacturing sector came in at 50.2 in September, bouncing back to the expansion zone for the first time since April.

The service sector PMI came in at 51.7 for the month, up 0.7 percentage points from a month earlier. Meanwhile, further declines are expected in the nation's unemployment rate in the coming months.

And, rising consumer spending suggests that employment conditions and income levels are improving. When Chinese consumers feel secure in their jobs and have disposable income to spend on non-essential goods and services, it acts as a driving force behind increased consumption, creating demand for businesses to expand their workforce, providing more jobs and potential wage growth.

Retail and service sectors such as hospitality, entertainment and tourism have benefited significantly from holiday spending. These sectors are labor-intensive, and the surge in consumer demand has produced more jobs and generated greater income.

We believe that this positive cycle ignited by increased consumer spending can contribute to sustainable economic growth. A harmonious balance between supply and demand helps maintain economic stability and resilience. The cycle is not just about short-term gains; it can also lay the groundwork for long-term economic prosperity.

In the bigger picture, booming consumer demand tends to push businesses to expand, which often drives innovation and technological advances. These advances can lead to breakthroughs in various industries, enhancing China's global competitiveness.

Innovation-driven expansion tends to be more sustainable in the long term. By continuously adapting to changing consumer preferences and embracing new technologies, businesses can navigate economic challenges and remain resilient in the face of disruptions.

In summary, China's National Day Golden Week is more than just a holiday celebration; it is a testament to the strength of the nation's economy and the confidence of its consumers. The surge in consumer spending, the multiplier effect it has triggered and the support for a consumption-driven economic model, all point to a bright economic future for China.

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