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Voicing optimism on China's economy: Unleashing potential for high-quality development
Zhang Yaguang
Workers fine-tuning newly installed high-tech machinery, in a workshop located in Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province, China. /CFP
Workers fine-tuning newly installed high-tech machinery, in a workshop located in Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province, China. /CFP

Workers fine-tuning newly installed high-tech machinery, in a workshop located in Fuzhou, Jiangxi Province, China. /CFP

Editor's note: Zhang Yaguang is a tenured associate professor at the School of Economics, Peking University. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

China's National Bureau of Statistics is scheduled to hold a press conference on October 18 to announce detailed economic data for the first three quarters of the year. Based on the national economic performance data released for August and the purchasing managers' index (PMI) for September, it is evident that China's economy is showcasing robust resilience and immense potential for high-quality development.

In contrast to data from the semi-annual economic report released on July 17, China's economy, entering the third quarter, has witnessed accelerated growth in production and supply, steady expansion of domestic demand, overall improvement in employment situation and prices, and a persistent trend of economic transformation and upgrading. The systematic rollout of substantial policy tools has led to a continuous increase in positive factors in economic operation. In September, manufacturing PMI, non-manufacturing business activity index, and composite PMI reached 50.2, 51.7, and 52.0 respectively, all entering the expansion zone and signaling a rebound in economic vitality.

Looking ahead, there are three "power structures" that will be pivotal in China's journey towards high-quality economic development:

First – power structure of economic development

Among the "three driving forces" propelling macroeconomic growth, consumption continues to play a significant role, contributing substantially to the economic recovery. In the first eight months, the total retail sales of consumer goods grew by 7 percent year on year, maintaining rapid growth. The Mid-Autumn Festival and National Day holidays saw record-breaking performances in multiple statistical indicators, with bustling human activity and goods flow drawing global attention. The slowdown in investment and export growth, impacted by international circumstances and the lingering effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, underscores the prominence of consumption. Learning from the historical experiences of developed nations and relevant theories of developmental economics, China is transitioning into a phase of high-volume consumption and an era where the quality of life is highly prized. The focus on consumption aligns with the trajectory of economic development in modernized nations. It is foreseeable that consumption will further cement its status in China's economic growth, offering augmented propelling force.

Second – power structure of industrial upgrading

Data in August and September reveals a continuous trend of industrial upgrading in China, with production transitioning towards digitalization, networking, and intellectualization. New industries and products are emerging as fresh growth points, solidifying the foundation of economic development. Notably, powered by superior technologies in new energy and other areas, China has ascended to become the world's largest automobile exporter. Chinese President Xi Jinping pointed out that realizing new industrialization is a key task in the nation's pursuit of Chinese modernization to comprehensively build a stronger country and advance national rejuvenation on the new journey in the new era. With a comprehensive industrial system, immense market size, abundant talent pool and a formidable institutional advantage, the strategic layout of new industrialization as the main engine of economic growth is becoming increasingly apparent.

Third – power structure of foreign trade

It is undeniable that the current international environment is complex and challenging, with the world economy showing fragile signs of recovery. Trade interactions among major economies like China, the U.S., Japan, and the euro area are considerably affected. The role of China as the "world's factory" implies the country's inherent interconnectedness with global economic well-being. Concurrently, China is resolute in deepening reforms and expanding openness, advocating for the Belt and Road Initiative, and unleashing new dynamism through institutional openness, the effects of which are gradually unfolding. In the first eight months, the total import and export volume with BRI participating countries grew by 3.6 percent year on year, acting as a stabilizer for foreign trade and indicating imminent structural adjustments and transformations in China's future foreign trade landscape.

In summation, China still possesses market, industrial, and trade advantages that are unparalleled compared to the majority of countries globally and it is in the process of forming and manifesting new technological advantages. Most crucially, there is still considerable potential to be tapped into in relation to China's institutional advantages and an array of policy tools remain in reserve. These constitute a formidable safeguard for the high-quality development of China's economy.

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