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News analysis: What to expect from this year's Xiangshan Forum
CGTN

China is preparing to host a major security forum in its capital city, Beijing, with a record-breaking number of participants from around the globe expected to attend.

The 10th Beijing Xiangshan Forum, set to be held from October 29 to 31, will provide an opportunity for delegations to hold discussions, express views and resolve differences regarding defense and security issues.

It has attracted official delegations from more than 90 countries and international organizations, including 22 representatives at the defense minister-level or higher, and 14 representatives at the military chief-level, with both the number and level of representatives taking part in the forum reaching record highs, the forum's preparatory work committee announced on Tuesday.

This year's forum will also serve as a platform for China to introduce its own security initiative and provide an opportunity for China and the U.S. to discuss military ties. The U.S. Defense Department has confirmed it will send a delegation to attend the forum, though a substantial agreement is unlikely to be reached, according to Yan Zhanyu, a scholar on national security at China's University of International Business and Economics.

What will be discussed ?

"The scope of security issues to be discussed at this year's forum will be very broad, ranging from traditional to non-traditional areas. Security hotspots in all regions of the world are also likely to be covered," Yan told CGTN.

Crisis management between China and the United States, the situation in the South China Sea, the Ukraine crisis, the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, the Korean Peninsula nuclear issue and armed conflict in West Africa may become hot topics, according to Yan.

In addition, in non-traditional areas, he suggested that the emerging cutting-edge technological arms race, such as Lethal Autonomous Weapon Systems (LAWS), cognitive domain operations and drone warfare, are likely to be discussed.

Initiated in 2006, the Beijing Xiangshan Forum is a high level security and defense platform for international exchanges with a global influence.

Compared with other world's security platforms, including the IISS Shangri-La Dialogue jointly organized by the UK and Singapore, the Munich Security Conference in Germany and the Halifax International Security Forum in Canada, which are renowned as weather vanes for developed countries' security concerns and U.S. foreign policy, the Beijing Xiangshan Forum offers a unique opportunity to gain insights into China's security landscape.

"The Xiangshan Forum has given China an international platform to elaborate on its position and change the wrong perception by some Western countries of its development path," said Yan. "China needs such a major diplomatic event to make the world believe that China's strength does not pose a threat, nor does it generate confrontation."

China is expected to highlight dialogue, exchanges, solidarity and opposing confrontation in addressing global security issues during the forum, he said, by centering on the concept of a global community with a shared future and expounding on the six commitments in the Global Security Initiative Concept Paper.

The forum also conveys to the world China's sincerity in resolving differences and disputes by peaceful means, he added.

"It invites countries with diverse security interests and concepts to communicate and exchange views rather than unilaterally opt for decoupling or bloc confrontation and Cold War mentality," Yan said. "Through the Xiangshan Forum, China tells the world that confrontation is not the only way to solve security problems, nor is it limited to any proposal put forward by a certain country, and that world peace can be realized through dialogue and consultation."

Direction of China-U.S. military ties

The U.S. Department of Defense has confirmed that it will send a delegation to attend this year's Xiangshan Forum. The registered attendees from the U.S. side include Xanthi Carras, the country director for China in the Office of the Undersecretary of Defense for Policy from the Department of Defense, and Chad Sbragia, who led the U.S. delegation in 2019 when the Xiangshan Forum was last held in person.

Since U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken visited China in June this year, the two countries have engaged in a series of high level exchanges. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi is on a three-day visit to the U.S. and met Blinken on Thursday.

In terms of the U.S. delegation's participation in the Xiangshan Forum, Yan said it has a positive significance for easing U.S.-China military relations.

"The fact that China took the initiative to invite the U.S. military officials to come and take part in discussions while the U.S. responded quickly and positively reflects that both sides believe it is important to establish military communication channels under the current complex situation, avoid miscalculation and prevent escalation of tensions," he said, adding it also shows that China and the U.S. have common interests in maintaining peace.

However, Yan noted that the resumption of military exchanges does not mean that China and the U.S. will reach compromises on key issues.

"Judging from the lineup of the U.S. delegation, China and the U.S. are unlikely to hold high-level talks in Beijing, and this forum is more like exploring the future direction of China-U.S. military relations," he said. "It is too early for the two sides to reach a substantive agreement."

The key still lies in whether the two sides can effectively convey signals and form a communication mechanism through the forum, as well as specific interactions in the military field between the two countries after the forum, he added.

"A sound China-U.S. relationship is the common aspiration of peace-loving people around the world, but the conditions for it are still insufficient," he said.

Yan noted that China has shown great sincerity in improving its relations with the U.S. He said it has exercised restraint and taken the initiative to invite senior U.S. political and military officials to China for communication despite intensified pressure from the U.S. side, while the U.S. has not reduced its containment approach to China.

"In a word, whether China-U.S. relations can get back on the right track awaits concrete actions taken by the U.S. side," he said.

(Cover via official website of Beijing Xiangshan Forum)

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