Xi-Biden meeting: What to watch for?

I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn and here's what I'm watching: the summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden — what each leader wants and what we should watch for. Here's the background. 

China has recruited a whole-of-government effort to stabilize and improve Sino-U.S. relations in the run-up to APEC and the summit. President Xi Jinping set the tone via his call for people-to-people friendship and his personal outreach, meeting Bill Gates and California's Governor Gavin Newsom, and writing letters to various Americans, stressing "building bridges of friendship." These include Flying Tigers Veterans,U.S.-China Youth and Student Exchange Association, the high-profile visit by the Philadelphia Orchestra and China-U.S. Sister Cities Conference, noting that 284 pairs of sister provinces/states and sister cities had been formed since 1979. 

Significantly, we've seen a flurry of high-level meetings between U.S. and Chinese officials, covering foreign affairs, climate cooperation, rights of people with disabilities, nuclear nonproliferation, maritime matters and economic issues. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi came to Washington and then Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, China's economics head, also came. Four U.S. cabinet officials have visited Beijing since June, including Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, Climate Envoy John Kerry and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo. Recent talks between Kerry and China's special envoy for climate change Xie Zhenhua were called successful.

At the Xi-Biden summit, here's what each might like to achieve. In my view, president Xi would like to ratchet down tensions with the U.S. so as not to inhibit China's economic recovery and development; attract American businesses to invest in China, assuaging their worries and countering their skepticism; reduce U.S. sanctions, especially on high-tech items; ensure that the U.S. maintains its one-China principle and will not enable Taiwan to move toward independence.

Whereas President Biden would like China's cooperation on climate; to re-establish regular channels of communication, especially military to military; limit fentanyl precursors fueling the opioid crisis; reduce risks in the South China Sea and around Taiwan; encourage China to help end Russia-Ukraine conflict and to advise Iran not to interfere through its proxies in the Israel-Hamas conflict.

Much of this will not be made public, nor for good diplomacy, should it be. Here's what we can watch for: establishing formal, high-level working groups, such as climate change, military-to-military contacts, fentanyl interdiction and artificial intelligence guardrails.

In the past APEC meetings, President Xi has stressed regional cooperation, economic globalization, innovation and green development. At APEC in 2021, he said,"We must remove barriers, not erect walls. We must open up, not close off. We must seek integration, not decoupling." 

But much has happened since then, the world is a different place now, and the reciprocity of opening up and the reasons for partially closing off do not find global agreement. Yet, all should recognize that for the global economy to recover from the pandemic and to prosper, we need China and the U.S. to work together.

In addition, both leaders have their domestic challenges: Xi has issues with China's economy. Biden has the 2024 presidential election on his horizon.

For several years, I've offered three prescriptions for U.S.-China relations: First, don't make things worse. For the first time in years, it seems that both sides are trying to do just this. Second, find small positive things to do together. Certainly, regular communications are key. Third, let time pass peacefully. Time has its own way of solving problems that may seem intractable.

I'm keeping watch. I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn.

Script: Robert Lawrence Kuhn

Editors: Yang Yutong, Liang Zhiqiang

Designer: Qi Haiming

Producer: Sun Lan

Chief Editor: Wei Wei

Supervisors: Xiao Jian, Adam Zhu

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