What to expect at COP28: A climate summit amid disasters, war and inflation

Editor's note: Rizwan Basir, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a sociologist who works as a Climate Finance Specialist at Climate Resourcing Coordination Center based in Islamabad, Pakistan. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Despite 2023's alarming trajectory toward becoming the hottest year ever recorded, the mission to meet the internationally agreed-upon climate targets looms larger and more formidable than ever.

The ongoing negotiations at the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties (COP28) to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change may ease the way. However, the rift between the debt-stricken Global South and the Global North, which has been reluctant to fill the climate finance gap for the developing world, stands as an imposing barrier to overcome. 

Adding to the challenge, then, is the war in the Middle East, which has essentially put climate change on the backburner. The unrest in this region poses an additional risk of deepening divisions in an already fragmented world, diverting resources that ought to be allocated for addressing climate change toward humanitarian aid.

Remember, funding is one of the key elements to meet the challenges of climate change. In 2009, developed countries made the commitment to jointly mobilize $100 billion annually in climate finance by 2020 to support developing countries develop sustainably, but this commitment remains unfulfiled. In April, COP28 President Sultan Al Jaber called on developed economies to fulfill their commitment, providing "available, accessible and affordable" finance to the most vulnerable to the climate crisis worldwide.

Against this complex backdrop, and in anticipation of what lies ahead, here are four crucial elements to observe in the run-up to this year's climate summit.

Who's emitting what?

At the 2015 UN climate talks in Paris, countries committed to limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, with an aspiration for 1.5 degrees.

However, recent warnings from a UN-backed panel of climate scientists indicate a potential rise of more than 3 degrees Celsius, which would significantly reshape life on our planet. These undeniable findings will spark robust discussions in Dubai, where countries anticipate their progress towards reaching their Paris Agreement targets through a thorough "global stocktake."

This periodic review, conducted every five years, compares political commitments with actual achievements and urges countries to pinpoint areas for stronger emissions reduction efforts.

Who's financing the green transition?

Success in mitigating climate change is inseparable from financial commitments; the two are deeply interlinked, and trust is at the core. Developing countries are grappling with a lack of financial support, some are already facing the devastating consequences of floods and hurricanes, and are in dire need of debt relief.

This year, negotiators are expected to pursue an agreement on a new collective climate finance goal beyond 2025. The United Arab Emirates (UAE) initiated this effort by revealing ALTERRA, a $30 billion fund introduced by President Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan on December 1. It targets $250 billion in investments by 2030, allocating $25 billion to climate strategies and $5 billion to support Global South investments, with more expected to come.

The lost case of the loss and damage (L&D) fund

Earlier this month, delegates from both the developed and developing worlds outlined a new blueprint for the L&D fund. Initially, the World Bank will oversee the administration of the fund, drawing contributions from diverse sources, including substantial inputs from developing countries alongside the U.S., EU, and UK. Day one of COP28 saw the official launch of the L&D fund, garnering pledges amounting to more than $400 million.

However, apprehension looms within the developing world. An institution largely influenced by donors from Global North, its inclination towards loans instead of grants, and perceived inadequacies in handling climate-related affairs pose substantial risks for those in dire need.

Will Big Oil continue to hold sway in the negotiations?

Is renewable energy production on the ascent? Certainly, but emissions are increasing. Are climate catastrophes intensifying at an alarming pace? Unquestionably, but while transition to net-zero is necessary, it cannot be rushed.

These might just be the back-and-forth arguments which will shape the narrative of COP28. As the discussions unfold, the conversation is bound to be clouded with "whataboutism." And regrettably, the UAE – already positioned at a disadvantage as one of the largest oil producers and exporters – will find itself deeply tangled in this discourse.

Historically, oil giants opposed eliminating fossil fuels and held sway over COP declarations. At COP27, they altered language from "phasing out" to "phasing down" coal, and removed liability provisions for historical emissions' impact on loss and damage.

The UAE and Saudi Arabia have even gone to the extent of asserting that oil-producing countries merit greater influence in climate negotiations due to their heavy dependence on fossil fuels. Should this proposal materialize, it would add insult to injury for the Global South, rendering their struggles inconsequential and their suffering in vain.

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