Xi-Lukashenko summit: Why good personal relations in diplomacy matter

Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance journalist in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues and writes for multiple web magazines. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Deepening political and economic cooperation with China seems to be among Belarus' top priorities. Although the Eastern European nation will undoubtedly preserve its current geopolitical course – where good relations with Moscow represent the key pillar of its "multi-vector foreign policy" – Minsk also seeks to additionally strengthen its "unprecedented high level of collaboration" with Beijing.

The fact that Chinese President Xi Jinping and his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko met 13 times since 2013 clearly suggests that the two countries have common economic interests. Indeed, the trade volume between Beijing and Minsk continues to significantly grow.

For instance, in 2022, it reached $5.08 billion, a year-on-year increase of 33 percent, reaching a new high. Moreover, from January to August 2023, trade between China and Belarus reached $5.83 billion, while in 2022, according to Belarusian officials, Belarus' exports to China soared 77 percent.

It is, therefore, not surprising that economic cooperation was on top of the agenda at the summit between Xi and Lukashenko, held in Beijing on December 4. It was their second meeting this year. Previously, in March, following a summit with Lukashenko, Xi said that the China-Belarus friendship is "unbreakable," and that the two sides should "further enhance political mutual trust and remain each other's good friends and partners."

It is not a secret that China sees Belarus as a significant partner in the Belt and Road Initiative, while Minsk seeks to find new markets for its export-oriented economy. It is, therefore, not surprising that more than 70 Belarusian enterprises and organizations participated at the China International Import Expo, which took place in Shanghai last month.

"We decided a long time ago that we would cooperate and live in friendship with China. This friendship is more than 30 years old," Lukashenko stressed following the summit with Xi.

According to the Belarusian leader, his country has been a reliable partner for China and will remain so. Belarusian officials have repeatedly stated that the People's Republic of China is Belarus' second-largest economic partner after Russia. However, Belarus buys around three-quarters less from China than it does from the Russian Federation. Russia, therefore, remains Belarus' major ally, as well as the primary export destination for Belarusian products. But the economic interests of China and Russia in Belarus do not seem to clash, which allows Minsk to continue increasing cooperation with both Moscow and Beijing. 

As of October 2022, China financed at least 35 infrastructure projects in the Eastern European country. The most significant one is the China-Belarus Industrial Park "Great Stone."

At the same time, Belarus, sanctioned by the European Union and the United States, will undoubtedly seek to establish close economic and political relations with other non-Western actors. Prior to the summit with Xi, Lukashenko was in Dubai, where he attended the 28th session of the Conference of the Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. There he met with leaders of countries such as Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan, as well as a number of African nations.

In other words, the Belarusian leader aims to demonstrate that, despite Western sanctions, he is not isolated in the international arena. Also, Belarus' Prime Minister Roman Golovchenko is scheduled to have a series of meetings in Asia in the coming weeks, which suggests that Minsk actively looks for new markets. In that context, Lukashenko's visit to Beijing is an important step in his administration's strategy to expand overseas markets for domestic companies.

If the meeting between Lukashenko and Xi really lasted three times longer than scheduled, which is what Belarusian Belta News Agency reports, then it shows that the two leaders have developed not only close ties between their countries, but also very good personal relations.

"Anyone who tells you that personal relationships don't matter in foreign affairs doesn't have a clue," former Canadian Prime Minister Brian Mulroney said in 2011.

Quite aware of that, Lukashenko's second visit to China in nine months indicates that he understands that good personal relations with Xi could help him achieve some strategic goals in terms of cooperation with Beijing.

Finally, even though it is unclear if the two leaders discussed the Ukraine conflict, the fact that during their previous meeting in March both Lukashenko and Xi called for the "soonest possible" peace deal for Ukraine, clearly suggests that China and Belarus share, if not the same, then very at least similar views on possibly one of the most important geopolitical issues of our time.

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