What awaits Ukraine in 2024?

Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance journalist in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues and writes for multiple web magazines. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

Heavily dependent on the West, Ukraine desperately needs military and financial aid to continue fighting against Russia, and preserve social and economic stability. But after the United States and its allies significantly cut their support for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, fears in Kyiv began to grow that the Western nations might soon completely abandon the Eastern European country.

Back in October, White House national security spokesman John Kirby said that Washington will keep providing Kyiv with military aid "as long as it can," although he emphasized that "it is not going to be indefinite." Quite aware of that, on December 13, following his visit to Norway, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy stressed that his country "cannot defeat Russia without foreign support." Previously, on December 9, his wife Olena Zelenska warned that Ukrainians are in "mortal danger of being left to die" if Western countries don't continue their financial support for Kyiv.

Following Zelenskyy's meeting with his American counterpart Joe Biden on December 12 in Washington, it became obvious that Kyiv cannot count on a large-scale aid from the United States. At least for now.

According to reports, Zelenskyy came to the U.S. to drum up support for a $61 billion aid package that has stalled in the Congress. In order to approve the aid, top Republicans expect the government to implement stricter security measures on the U.S.-Mexico border to prevent what they often describe as an influx of migrants. It is estimated that more than 10,000 illegal aliens crossed from Mexico into the United States every day in May this year.

As a result, U.S. House and Senate Republicans are backing renewed construction of a border wall, also known as the Trump Wall, named after former U.S. President Donald Trump. Building a "big, beautiful wall" between the two countries was his signature promise during the 2016 election campaign.

Thus, until the border wall issue is resolved, Ukraine is unlikely to get $61 billion from the United States. More importantly, the European Union leaders have recently made it perfectly clear that the bloc "will not be able to fully replace the American support for Kyiv," which indicates that in the coming months Ukraine might face a series of military defeats and potentially a political crisis.

Although Biden said he had approved a further $200 million in U.S. military aid to tide Ukraine over for coming weeks, that amount is not nearly enough to help the Eastern European country preserve the status quo on the ground. Now that its counteroffensive failed, Russia is expected to retake the initiative and make some tactical gains, primarily in the Donbas region.

Such an outcome could have severe consequences for political stability in Kyiv, given that the Ukrainian society had very high expectations from the failed counteroffensive. Parts of the country's political establishment have already started blaming Zelenskyy for the military fiasco, while some circles see Valerii Zaluzhnyi, the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, as the figure who is the most responsible that the Ukrainian military did not achieve any of its goals during the campaign launched in early June. Lastly, there is a fraction that accuses the West of not providing enough aid for Kyiv, which reportedly had a negative impact on the Ukrainian counteroffensive.

Therefore, the coming year will undoubtedly be very difficult for the Eastern European country. It is entirely possible that certain Western political circles will attempt to force Kyiv to negotiate with Moscowand reach a ceasefire agreement. From their perspective, such a move would allow Ukraine to consolidate and prepare for another round of fighting.

Russia, however, is not expected to reach a deal with Kyiv unless Ukraine accepts what the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson Maria Zakharova described as "new territorial realities." But as long as the Ukrainian authorities see the possibility that the U.S. – despite its domestic problems – can continue funding and arming Kyiv, they are unlikely to make any concessions to Moscow.

According to Zelenskyy's rhetoric, at this point it is rather unclear if Washington will preserve its current course regarding the conflict in the Eastern European nation.

"I got the signals. They were more than positive. But we know that we have to separate words and particular results. Therefore, we will count on particular results," Zelenskyy said.

However, in 2024 when the United States is scheduled to hold presidential election, it is not very probable that the situation in Ukraine will be Washington's top priority. In other words, the fate of the Eastern European country – as well as the Ukraine conflict itself – seems to depend on its major backer – the United States. The coming year will almost certainly bring some very serious challenges to Kyiv.

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