Global financial institutions upbeat on China's economic outlook

Multiple international financial institutions have expressed their positive outlook for China's economic prospects in 2024, citing several compelling factors.

Swiss multinational investment bank UBS has voiced its confidence in the Chinese consumer market for the coming year. In its report, "What's the outlook for growth?", UBS anticipates that the recovery momentum observed in 2023 is set to continue into 2024, underscoring China's enduring status as a global growth engine.

Consumption has been a focal point of this positive sentiment, contributing to 83.2 percent of China's overall GDP growth in the first three quarters of this year, as per data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).

UBS also anticipated China's leadership and investment in the carbon transition, along with key industrial supply chain upgrades, are expected to provide durable and quality growth for the coming year.

Official data showed China's exports grew for the first time in six months in November. Wang Tao, chief China economist and head of Asia Economic Research at UBS, held a promising perspective on China's trade growth, with expectations of a continued global economic recovery, coupled with robust exports of automobiles and electronic products.  

This sentiment is reinforced by Fitch Ratings, which anticipates China's GDP to surpass 5 percent growth in 2023, and close to this level the following year, as the steady improvements observed in consumption, industrial production, and labor markets.

Investment is also poised to play a pivotal role in China's economic growth for 2024, Zhu Haibin, chief China economist at J.P. Morgan, told China Media Group (CMG). New infrastructure investments are expected thanks to robust policy support, Zhu added.