NCC: El Niño to persist with a continued rise in temperature

The Climate Change Economics Simulation Joint Laboratory of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences and the China Meteorological Administration jointly released the Climate Change Green Paper "Report on Addressing Climate Change (2023): Actively and Prudently Promoting Carbon Peaking and Neutrality," indicating that amid global warming compounded by El Niño events of moderate to severe intensity, extreme weather occurrences might increase in frequency, range and intensity. China's average temperatures are expected to continue rising over the coming decades.

The Green Paper suggests that China is likely to experience a continued rise in extreme heavy rainfall and significant drought events in the future. Extreme weather events such as high temperatures, droughts, heavy rainfall, floods and strong typhoons are becoming more frequent. Most of the regions facing increased risks are densely populated areas in the eastern parts of China, raising concerns over societal vulnerability and heightened impacts on economic and social security due to extreme weather events. However, this also brings new requirements and opportunities for climate service capabilities to support the development of cities.

In 2023, extreme weather events in China displayed trends of increased occurrences, broader impacts, heightened intensity, setting historical records, and an increase in unforeseen sudden events, significantly impacting people's livelihood and economy.

Research from the National Climate Center (NCC) indicates that in 2023, China's climate exhibited the following characteristics:

1. Increased frequency of regional extreme heavy rainfall, extensive extreme heatwaves, sustained extreme droughts, and high-impact extreme cold waves.

2. Extreme weather events displayed characteristics of being highly extreme, destructive and abnormal. For instance, in late January of 2023, a severe cold wave hit northeast China, with Mohe City in Heilongjiang Province recording a historic low temperature of minus 53 degrees Celsius.

3. Unusual occurrences of extreme weather events in terms of time and spatial scales, breaking the regularities of monsoon climates. There's a notable northward shift in China's rainfall belts after the 2000s, with the rain belt showing a distinct expansion toward the north. The typhoon forming areas in the northwestern Pacific Ocean and the South China Sea demonstrate a trend of westward shifting, moving closer to China.

4. Rapid transitions in extreme weather events are more abrupt, such as frequent occurrences of abrupt changes from drought to flood or from cold to warm. For example, from June 1 to July 28 this year, a significant portion of North China experienced 20 percent to 50 percent less rainfall, aggravating soil moisture loss and leading to droughts in some areas. However, from July 29 to August 1, historically rare heavy rainfall occurred in most parts of North China, causing severe flood disasters due to the rapid shift from drought to flood.

5. Successive occurrences of compound disasters, characterized by localized, sudden and catastrophic events. In the summer and autumn of 2022, the Yangtze River Basin experienced a compound extreme event of droughts and sustained high temperatures. On July 28, 2023, Typhoon Doksuri made landfall in Fujian Province's Jiniiang City at a strong typhoon intensity, causing severe damage with heavy rainfall affecting 13 regions, resulting in significant losses. Similarly, due to Typhoon Haikui, from September 7 to 8, some areas of Guangdong Province and the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region experienced record-breaking torrential rains with extraordinary intensity, duration and extensive coverage.

Further warming of the climate will exacerbate regional climate risks in China. According to the NCC's monitoring data as of November 2023, a moderate-intensity El Niño event has formed and is expected to persist until the 2024 Spring Festival. The overlay of El Niño events with various weather and climate conditions, along with various extreme events, will have complex effects on China's wind power generation, winter electricity demand, transportation, human health, and urban operations.