Domestic terrorism, political violence seen as top threat to U.S. interests in 2024

The possibility of domestic terrorism and acts of political violence in the United States, particularly around the 2024 presidential election, was ranked as the leading concern in terms of impact on U.S. interests and likelihood of occurring or escalating in 2024, according to a newly released annual survey by the Center for Preventive Action under New York-based think tank the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR).

For the first time in its 16-year history, the Preventive Priorities Survey found that the leading concern for foreign policy experts was not a foreign threat to U.S. interests, according a press release from the CFR on Thursday. 

The scenario of concern was described as "Growing political polarization in the United States, particularly around the 2024 presidential election, leads to acts of domestic terrorism and political violence."

The survey was conducted in November 2023 and was based on responses from around 550 U.S. government officials, foreign policy experts and academics, each of whom was asked to estimate the impact of 30 ongoing or potential violent conflicts on U.S. interests and likelihood of occurring or escalating in 2024, respectively.

Three scenarios were judged to be both high-likelihood and high-impact, which is unprecedented since the survey began in 2008. Besides the election-related violence in the United States, experts said they were concerned about an escalation of the Palestinian-Israeli conflict into a wider regional conflict, and a surge of migration to the southwest U.S. border.

The survey was created in 2008 primarily to alert U.S. policymakers to potentially threatening sources of instability and conflict overseas so they could take timely preventive action and reduce the risk of additional military interventions, according to the CFR.

In prior years, only overseas or foreign-sourced risks to U.S. interests were evaluated in the survey. However, during the public solicitation of contingencies for the 2024 survey, the level of concern expressed about the risk of politically motivated violence in the United States, especially surrounding the upcoming presidential election, was too great to disregard, said the CFR.

(Cover: People gather at a campaign rally for Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump in Mason City of Iowa, U.S., January 5, 2024. /CFP)