El Niño could make 2024 hotter than record-shattering 2023

2024 could be hotter under El Niño's influence than the record-shattering 2023, the United Nations warned Friday, as it urged drastic emissions cuts to combat climate change.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said new monthly temperature records were set every month between June and December, and the pattern is likely to continue due to the warming El Niño weather phenomenon.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) predicted there is a one-in-three chance that 2024 will be warmer than 2023 and a 99-percent certainty that 2024 will rank among the five warmest years ever.

The UN's WMO weather and climate agency said July and August last year were the two hottest months ever recorded, as it officially confirmed 2023 had been the warmest year on record "by a huge margin."

The 2015 Paris climate accords aimed to limit global warming to well below two degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels and 1.5 degrees Celsius if possible.

The WMO said the 2023 annual average global temperature was 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, though one of the six datasets it relies on, the non-profit research organization Berkeley Earth, placed the figure as high as 1.54 degrees Celsius.

The WMO's new secretary-general Celeste Saulo warned that El Niño, which emerged mid-2023, is likely to turn up the heat even further in 2024.

The naturally-occurring climate pattern, typically associated with increased heat worldwide, usually increases global temperatures in the year after it develops.

"Given that El Niño usually has the biggest impact on global temperatures after it peaks, 2024 could be even hotter," she said.