China's foreign trade: A driving force in global development

Editor's note: Shen Jianguang is the chief economist of JD Group. Jiang Chuanyue is a senior researcher at JD Research Institute for Economic Development. The views expressed in the article are the authors' personal views and do not necessarily represent those of CGTN. The article has been translated from Chinese and edited for brevity and clarity.

Despite unstable overseas demand and the restructuring of the global supply chains in 2023, China's exports in renminbi terms maintained positive growth, with many highlights in terms of regions and categories. 

China's share in global exports remained above pre-COVID-19 pandemic levels. Against the backdrop of de-globalization, China's foreign trade has played a constructive role in global development.

Trade diversification helps maintain high share of exports

Amid the global contraction of trade, China's exports have shown resilience. In 2023, exports rose by 0.6 percent in renminbi terms and fell 4.6 percent in U.S. dollar terms.

According to World Trade Organization (WTO) data, in the first 10 months of 2023, most of the world's major economies experienced a decline in merchandise exports in U.S. dollar terms, but China's exports outperformed those of economies such as Russia, South Korea, Canada and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN).

China is actively expanding its exports to emerging markets to offset the downturn in exports to Europe and the United States.

The country's share of exports to ASEAN was retained at 15.5 percent, surpassing the EU and the U.S. to become China's largest export partner.

Driven by trade diversification, China's global share remains higher than the pre-pandemic levels. 

WTO data indicates that as of the third quarter of 2023, China's share of global exports remained at 14.2 percent. Despite a slight fall from the historical high of 15.0 percent in 2021, it was still significantly higher than the 13.1 percent in 2019, demonstrating continual resilience in foreign trade.

Automotive sector now new engine for China's exports

China's automobile exports have leaped to the world's top, becoming the biggest highlight in exports. According to the General Administration of Customs (GAC), China exported over two million vehicles in 2021 and over three million in 2022. 

In 2023, automotive exports grew by over two million to reach 5.22 million vehicles, a year-on-year increase of 57.4 percent.

China's Association of Automobile Manufacturers predicted that China will surpass Japan to become the world's largest automotive exporter for 2023.

In terms of export value in U.S. dollars, the automotive and chassis exports witnessed a year-on-year increase of 69 percent, while automotive parts exports grew by 9.0 percent year on year, according to the GAC. The combined share of these exports rose to 5.6 percent, while it was only 2.7 percent in 2019. 

Regionally, Russia and the EU played the most significant role in driving China's automotive exports, while ASEAN, Kyrgyzstan, Mexico, the United Kingdom, Canada and others also contributed substantially.

New energy vehicles are a crucial driver for the high growth in automotive exports. As China vigorously advances the green and low-carbon transformation of the automotive industry, it exported 1.77 million electric passenger vehicles in 2023, a 67.1 percent year-on-year increase. 

In other words, approximately one in three exported vehicles was an electric passenger vehicle. Driven by this trend, the combined exports of electric passenger vehicles, lithium-ion batteries, and solar cells, known as the "three new" products, exceeded 1.06 trillion yuan ($150 billion) for the first time, growing by 29.9 percent.

Looking ahead to 2024, exports still face numerous challenges amid a complex and grim external environment. The key to stabilizing foreign trade may lie in deepening institutional opening-up.

While strengthening connections with developing countries, it is also crucial to steadily expand institutional opening-up and maintain good economic and trade relations with developed countries such as the U.S. and European countries. 

Meanwhile, enhanced policy efforts should be made to stabilize growth. Maintaining a reasonable level of economic growth helps leverage advantages in domestic industrial chains and large markets and improve expectations for foreign trade and investment.