New Zealand study to protect communities from wildfires

New Zealand researchers are building models to give more accurate predictions of where large wildfires could spread as they burn.

Researchers are creating detailed, localized modeling systems that provide accurate predictions of a spreading fire by incorporating weather changes driving fire behavior.

"Previous studies assessing the future wildfire risk in New Zealand have found that climate change will increase fire risk in many regions, so being able to get ahead of fires and their movement will be crucial in protecting communities and the environment," Marwan Katurji, University of Canterbury (UC) associate professor in atmospheric dynamics, said on Wednesday.

The models are considered high-fidelity and use atmospheric and spatial predictions, Katurji said, adding that they can represent specific locations' real-time conditions, including the weather.

Current models do not account for local variable weather conditions, said Katurji who was an expert witness for the Port Hills fire in 2017 and is studying some local fire incidents.

Wildfire costs in New Zealand have cost 82 million NZ dollars ($50.27 million) since 2017, research statistics showed.

The models can be used in fighting wildfires and in fire engineering, he said, adding that Fire and Emergency New Zealand can use this technology to predict or re-analyze real-time movement of the fire, so they can get ahead of where it is going.

Fire engineers could also use this to improve building practices to protect against fire by understanding how fire moves and how turbulent wind impacts fire behavior, Katurji said.

For understanding extreme fire behavior, the research team has been running fire whirl experiments in Twizel in the South Island.

Katurji said this research aimed to help inform and provide practitioners with insights on fire movement under different atmospheric conditions to better protect the environment from damaging wildfires.