Iraq gets impatient with foreign meddling amid Middle East tensions

Caught between a rock and a hard place, Iraq has long endured foreign interference, eroding the nation's sovereignty and exacerbating a security dilemma fueled by years of Islamic State terrorist insurgency and unchecked militia expansion.

The pickle is markedly amplified as Israel's military offensive in the Gaza Strip has sent ripples across the Middle East, pitting the U.S., Israel's greatest ally, against forces loyal to Iran in a widening conflict that has placed Iraq as one of the theaters for proxy warfare.

However, Baghdad's frustration with Washington and Tehran, both of which have heavily influenced Iraqi politics for two decades, became glaringly evident as the Iraqi government lodged robust protests against the two powers over the past month.

In rhetoric sharper than before, Baghdad has criticized the Pentagon for "blatantly violating Iraq's sovereignty," likening a U.S. strike that killed a militia leader in Baghdad in early January to "an act akin to terrorist activities." Another harsh statement was issued following a similar U.S. strike on Wednesday.

The strikes were among the many the U.S. launched in retaliation for attacks on U.S. assets by Iran-aligned militias, and talks of a quick U.S. military withdrawal from Iraq have gained steam following these strikes.

Last week, Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia' al-Sudani went on a Wall Street Journal (WSJ) interview calling for a quick and orderly negotiated exit of U.S.-led forces, a notable contrast to a year ago when he said he supported "indefinite U.S. troop presence," also to the WSJ. The U.S., for its part, has said it is not planning an exit from Iraq.

Al-Sudani and his immediate predecessors had largely maintained ambiguity in a political environment where some are fiercely pro-Iran while others oppose Iranian influence by favoring strong ties with the U.S., whose military occupation in the 2000s triggered bloody sectarian violence that led to the rise of militias in Iraq.

U.S.-led forces withdrew from Iraq in 2011 after toppling former leader Saddam Hussein eight years earlier. They then returned at Baghdad's invitation in 2014 to fight Islamic State terrorists as part of an international coalition. It currently has some 2,500 troops in the country serving in what the Pentagon calls "an advisory role."

For Baghdad, the presence of U.S. military assets is increasingly viewed as the source of instability as Iran-aligned militias keep pounding U.S. forces with rocket strikes, a common scene after the Trump administration assassinated Qassem Soleimani, an Iranian major general, in a drone strike near Baghdad International Airport in 2020.

Over 150 such rocket attacks have been launched on the U.S. military in Iraq and Syria since Hamas launched a surprise attack on southern Israel on October 7, prompting Israel's invasion into Gaza. Iran, which supports the Palestinian Islamist group, views Washington's support for Israel as an "evil scheme" that needs to be foiled.

The prevalence of Iraq's militias, aggravated by competition between political rivals, has long been a contentious issue in Baghdad. While most of them have been integrated into the security apparatus, its command over them is loose, and attacks on sites hosting U.S. personnel were carried out in unofficial capacities.

Iraq's impatience, in the meantime, is not just directed at the U.S. Following an Iranian missile strike that it said was targeting "an Israeli spy facility" last week in Erbil, the capital city of Iraq's semiautonomous Kurdistan region, the Iraqi government recalled its ambassador from Tehran and denounced the Islamic Republic in the strongest terms.

Noting that civilians were killed, the Foreign Ministry said Iraqi authorities "will take all legal steps" necessary, including "lodging a complaint with the (UN) Security Council." Later, at the World Economic Forum in Davos, al-Sudani and Masrour Barzani, the leader of the Kurdistan government, canceled their scheduled meetings with Iranian officials in protest. Such moves were staggering, as Baghdad rarely reveals its discontent with Iran, which supplies one-third of Iraq's electricity.

However, with a weak government that can hardly oversee its different branches, Iraq will find it hard to deter Iran from launching strikes on its soil or expel U.S. troops, whose presence is not bound by any official agreement.

The Iraqi parliament once passed a nonbinding resolution to eject U.S. forces after the killing of Soleimani. In 2023, a bilateral committee was set up to initiate a process for the end of the presence of U.S.-led forces on Iraqi soil. Other than that, analysts say the threats of an Islamic State resurgence still loom large in Iraq, and it would be counterproductive to rid its security forces of U.S. military assistance, a reality they say the prime minister is well aware of.

Difficulties also emerge if Iraq wants to cut its dependence on Iran. In a country where political parties and their affiliated militias hold immense sway over civil life, much administrative power is deprived from government leaders, mainly technocrats, who are consensus choices between parties loyal to Iran and their opposite camp.

Whether the security quagmire in Iraq will intensify rests largely on how Israel's Gaza offensive will unfold. A one-month truce deal that has the potential to end the conflict is reportedly in the works, with the U.S., Egypt and Qatar trying to mediate a common ground between Israel and Hamas. If the deal does come to fruition, that would mean a reprieve for Iraq.

(Cover: People attend a funeral ceremony for the remains of 41 victims from the Yazidi minority, who were executed by Islamic State group terrorists in 2014, in front of a memorial monument in Sinjar in northwestern Iraq's Nineveh Province, January 24, 2024. /CFP)