Russia and NATO: What is behind Western fearmongering rhetoric?

Editor's note: Nikola Mikovic, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a freelance journalist in Serbia. He covers mostly Russian, Ukrainian and Belarusian foreign policy issues and writes for multiple web magazines. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily those of CGTN.

APA reported citing TASS that Russian President Vladimir Putin and Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko will hold a meeting of the Supreme State Council of the Union State of Russia and Belarus on January 29.

And CNN reported that Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko said his country started taking delivery of Russian tactical nuclear weapons. But how likely is a major military confrontation that could lead to a nuclear holocaust?

Ever since the Ukrainian long-awaited counteroffensive failed, many Western officials, analysts, and media have started spreading rumors of an "imminent collapse" of the Eastern European country. In reality, there are hardly any major changes along the 1200-kilometer (745 miles) frontline, but that does not prevent certain political forces in the West from fearmongering about a "negative outcome" of the Ukraine conflict.

According to their narrative, Russia will soon make significant gains in Ukraine, and will then attack neighboring NATO members – Finland, Poland, and/or the Baltic states. German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius has recently warned that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine could "expand beyond the neighboring countries," while his country is reportedly preparing for a "potential Russian aggression against NATO."

Even the Dutch Admiral Rob Bauer, the NATO military committee chief, recently stressed that the West should prepare for a war with Russia. But what is behind such warmongering and rhetoric?

The fact that over the next six months, 90,000 troops from the 31 NATO countries, including Sweden – the U.S.-led alliance's newest member – will participate in the largest NATO exercise since the end of the Cold War, clearly suggests that the military organization takes the situation in Ukraine very seriously. NATO drills will consist of a series of national and multinational large-scale, live exercises conducted across various geographical locations such as Finland, Estonia, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Norway, Poland, Romania, Slovakia, Sweden and the United Kingdom. That, however, does not mean that Russia – whose military still has not achieved any of its strategic goals in Ukraine – really plans to attack any NATO members, nor that NATO will launch a full-scale war against Russia.

The United States-dominated alliance seems to deliberately exaggerate the "Russian threat" in order to pressure its members to increase their military budgets, as well as military and financial aid to Ukraine. Quite aware of that, Dmitry Rogozin, a member of Russia's Federation Council Committee on Defense and Security, claims that Western and Ukrainian media reports about Ukraine "running out of soldiers" and the West "being tired of helping Kyiv" are "fake news." In his view, the hope that "the other side" will run out of weapons and soldiers is "the most dangerous self-deception."

"I would like to responsibly declare the irresponsibility of those who spread lies about our collective and extremely dangerous enemy," Rogozin stressed on January 24.

In other words, the Kremlin does not seem to take the Western fatalistic narrative earnestly, which indicates that Russian policy makers (or at least certain factions within Russia's elite) do not believe that the conflict in Ukraine will end anytime soon. As a result, Russia is expected to continue increasing its domestic production of military hardware, and also strengthen military cooperation with Belarus, its only ally in Europe.

Minsk has recently adopted a new military doctrine aimed at "preventive deterrence for potential adversaries from unleashing armed aggression" against the former Soviet republic and its Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) allies. Besides Russia and Belarus, other CSTO members are Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, although none of them have ever supported Moscow's actions in Ukraine. Thus, if the conflict in the Eastern European country escalates, and leads to a military confrontation between Russia and NATO, it is rather questionable if Yerevan, Astana, Bishkek, and Dushanbe will openly support its nominal ally. Minsk, however, is a different story.

"We are peaceful people. We don't want war. But we are once again faced with the challenge threatening the survival of our civilization, our traditional values and national cultures," said Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko on January 27, following his meeting with his Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin in Saint Petersburg.

In the long-term, however, Russia and Belarus on the one hand, and NATO on the other hand, will continue implementing the "If you want peace, prepare for war" strategy that Lukashenko announced back in December 2022. Western countries, for their part, will almost certainly increase their "Russian threat" rhetoric, aiming to homogenize their societies, strengthen their military-industrial complex, and prepare Ukraine for another round of fighting.

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