New Zealand should think twice before joining AUKUS' pillar two

Editor's note: Kulsum Begum, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a security and strategic affairs researcher and freelance columnist. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Following the formation of the AUKUS security bloc on September 15, 2021, to contain China under the guise of maintaining so-called security in the Asia-Pacific region, Australia, flanked by the United States and the United Kingdom, has been exerting pressure on New Zealand to succumb to their illusion.

However, New Zealand has shown its practical foreign and defense policies in the region, exercising its own strategic autonomy and peaceful, non-nuclear position. Thus it hasn't yet fallen into the "Washington-London-Canberra triad trap." Australia, the U.S., and the UK are partners in the AUKUS pact, which aspires to construct nuclear-powered submarines that might break the nuclear-weapon-free zone bubble that exists between Australia and New Zealand. With the backing of the U.S. and the UK, Australia is still pushing to expand the security bloc across the Asia-Pacific region. To improve regional and international rivalry, the U.S. and Australia want to include its Five-Eye partner in their military alliance.

On February 1, Judith Collins, New Zealand's minister of defense, and Winston Peters, New Zealand's minister of foreign affairs, met with Richard Marles, Australian Defense Minister, and Penny Wong, Australian minister for foreign affairs in Melbourne for the first-ever "2+2" meeting.

As per media reports, a delegation from Australia will visit New Zealand soon to deliberate on the second pillar of the AUKUS accord. The sharing of cutting-edge military technology, such as cyberspace, quantum computing, autonomy, artificial intelligence, hypersonics, and electronic warfare, is covered under AUKUS' second pillar.

Following the discussion, Australian Defence Minister Richard Marles said that his nation would keep New Zealand informed about the agreement's second pillar, focused on advanced technology, while Defence Minister Judith Collins suggested New Zealand may make further contributions. According to The Guardian, New Zealand is now more interested in becoming a member of AUKUS' non-nuclear pillar. 

Due to its anti-nuclear stance, New Zealand has not been granted the opportunity to join pillar one of AUKUS. Its participation in pillar one may cast doubt on New Zealand's commitment to a non-nuclear posture.

With its non-nuclear posture intact, New Zealand may believe it can interact with the West. The U.S., the UK, and the Australian government insisted early on that pillar two of the AUKUS accord had nothing to do with nuclear weapons or nuclear-powered submarines. This differentiation is a little bit fine-grained, however. The USA, UK, and Australia are using these tricky strategies. The ultimate target of the triad is pillar one, even though pillar two sounds nice. It will bind New Zealand's resources, assets, and nation to a military alliance with the United States over which it will have little to no authority.

The question of New Zealand's sovereignty could be in danger. Through programs like AUKUS, the U.S. hopes to preserve its military superiority outside of its boundaries in the Asia-Pacific region. With regard to defense capabilities like artificial intelligence and quantum technology, pillar two seeks to broaden geopolitical collaboration between Australia, the United States, and the United Kingdom beyond nuclear power submarines. It also emphasizes real-world military collaboration in cyber security, anti-submarine warfare, and hypersonics.

Furthermore, the formation of this geopolitical AUKUS bloc was primarily motivated by the desire to sell nuclear submarines and counter China. Improving ties between New Zealand and its neighbors, like Australia, is not problematic; the issue arises when attempting to "counter another nation" inside the Asia-Pacific region.

Moreover, it would be ill-advised for New Zealand to become an "arms buyer" from the West, being a welfare state. New Zealand should not adopt a confrontational approach against China, as it has been the long-standing policy of nations such as the U.S., Australia, and Japan. 

Pragmatic collaboration between Beijing and Wellington, in the form of political cooperation, economic connections, and individual exchanges, has kept the relationship solid. Trade between the two countries reached 40 billion New Zealand dollars ($24 billion) in 2022. For New Zealand, the relationship with China is important, and working together will be crucial to tackling many regional issues. China-New Zealand's relations should foster all-weather friendship, share interests, and stabilize the Asia-Pacific region.

Given its worldwide reach and strategic independence, New Zealand needs to seriously think about joining the AUKUS' pillar two accord. Joining might impede its relationship with China but maintaining positive connections would be beneficial to New Zealand. The present favorable China-New Zealand ties might be steered in a more hazardous direction by some local hawkish politicians; thus the government of New Zealand should continue to be logical and watchful against them. The U.S., UK, and Australia's anti-China stance should not jeopardize the two nations' excellent existing relationship. 

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