News Analysis: What's behind Trump's NATO complaint?

Former U.S. President Donald Trump has once again stirred strong international backlash after he criticized America's NATO alliance as "delinquent" and warned that if he wins the November election, Washington would not protect his NATO allies unless some NATO member states increase their military spending.

The Republican Party's presidential frontrunner made the remarks at a political rally on Saturday in South Carolina. He said he told an unnamed leader of a "big country" that is part of NATO that he would withhold U.S. help and "encourage them [Russia] to do whatever the hell they want" with allies that do not contribute enough to military spending.

"'You didn't pay? You're delinquent?'" Trump recounted saying. "'No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You gotta pay. You gotta pay your bills.'”

Trump's words prompted unusually strong statements from the White House and U.S. NATO allies, saying that Trump is deranged and is undermining American national security and global stability, putting American and European soldiers at increased risk.

Is NATO really in arrears? Should NATO member states pay? Why does Trump always complain about NATO and what's his intention behind the complaint?

What's NATO and should NATO pay?

Formed in 1949 with the signing of the Washington Treaty, NATO is a security alliance of 31 countries from North America and Europe, and the U.S. is a key member of the organization.

Article 5 of the Washington Treaty is at the core of the Alliance, a promise of collective defense. It states that if an armed attack occurs against one of the member states, it should be considered an attack against all members, and other members shall assist the attacked member, with armed forces if necessary.

Calling NATO "delinquent," Trump wasn't referring to administrative payments, which constitute a tiny fraction of the allies' defense spending. His frequent complaint about NATO has been how much other NATO allies put into their own military budgets as he believes the U.S. "unfairly" shoulders the alliance's defense burden.

NATO had been cutting its defense spending after the Cold War, - from 4.1 percent of combined GDP in 1990 to 2.6 percent in 2000. But members agreed in 2014 to boost its military funding by increasing at least 2 percent of their GDPs to the alliance by 2024 after the Crimean crisis.

By 2017, when Trump was sworn in as U.S. president, only four countries met that threshold: the U.S., Greece, the UK and Poland, so he began to pressure allies to expand their military budgets after he took office. By 2022, the number of NATO nations meeting the 2 percent target bar had reached eight. As of 2023, the number increased to 11 stimulated by the Ukraine crisis, NATO estimates show. 

What's behind Trump's complaint?

Despite the incensement, the alliance's dependence on the U.S., whose military forms the core of the alliance, has only grown. Official NATO figures show that the U.S. accounted for 61 percent of the alliance's defense spending in 1990, while the share increased to 71 percent in 2016 though it dropped to about 68 percent in 2023, still a large majority.

Wang Yiwei, a professor of International Relations at Renmin University of China, told CGTN on Tuesday that the reason why Trump keeps pushing NATO to increase defense spending is out of political and economic reasons. 

He said that Trump hopes NATO members reduce their security dependence on the U.S. so that the country can "concentrate on dealing with China."

"Trump's focus has shifted to the Asia-Pacific and China, not Europe. This has become a bipartisan consensus," said Wang. He added that the U.S. has reached its debt ceiling, and it cannot keep supporting the high military expenditure.

According to the U.S. Treasury Department in January, the U.S. federal government's total public debt has reached $34 trillion for the first time in U.S. history. And the Ukraine crisis has further exacerbated the U.S. fiscal deficit. White House figures from December disclosed that the U.S. has provided Ukraine with more financial aid than any other country, amounting to $44 billion since 2022.

The Biden administration signed legislation to lift the nation's debt ceiling last June, averting an economically disastrous default on the federal government's debt. However, the U.S. still needs to discuss the fiscal 2024 spending bills next week. Failure to approve them will plunge Washington agencies into shutdown mode. 

"Trump has always emphasized that American interests come first, and he wants to reduce U.S. involvement in the outside world and reduce America's economic burden," said Wang.

Besides, if NATO members increase their military expenditure, they will inevitably buy military equipment from the U.S., which has the world's largest arms-producing and military services companies, said Wang, adding "this is in line with the interests of the U.S. military industry group."

Data from Statista, a leading data-gathering online platform, shows that the world's top five largest arms dealers were based in the U.S. In 2022, Lockheed Martin was the world's largest arms-producing and military services company, with arms sales amounting to nearly $60 billion. Arms sales constituted almost 90 percent of total company sales in that year. Raytheon and Boeing followed in the places behind.