Gaza conflicts: Israel to attack Rafah; Palestine seeks end of Israeli occupation

Israel expects to continue full-scale military operations in Gaza for another six to eight weeks as it prepares to mount a ground invasion of the enclave's southernmost city of Rafah, according to Reuters' Tuesday report citing four Israeli officials familiar with the strategy. 

It also reported that the U.S. has proposed a rival draft United Nations Security Council resolution calling for a temporary ceasefire in the Israel-Hamas war and opposing a major ground offensive by its ally Israel in Rafah.

Until now, Washington has been averse to the word ceasefire in any UN action on the Israel-Hamas war, but the U.S. text echoes language that President Joe Biden said he used last week in conversations with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

It would see the Security Council "underscore its support for a temporary ceasefire in Gaza as soon as practicable, based on the formula of all hostages being released, and calls for lifting all barriers to the provision of humanitarian assistance at scale," according to the text seen by Reuters.

Israel to attack Rafah

There is little chance that Netanyahu's government will heed international criticism to call off a Rafah ground assault, according to Avi Melamed, a former Israeli intelligence official.

Another Israeli intelligence official disclosed that the only potential delay to the Israeli assault on Rafah could come should Hamas give ground in hostage negotiations and hand over the prisoners it took.

"Even that would only delay the advance on Rafah unless it is coupled with the demilitarization of the city and surrender of the Hamas battalions there," he added.

Military chiefs believe they can significantly damage Hamas' remaining capabilities through the Rafah assault, paving the way for a shift to a lower-intensity phase of targeted airstrikes and special forces operations.

However, according to Hamas, the total victory promised by Netanyahu won't be quick or easy. A Hamas official based in Qatar told Reuters that the group estimated it had lost 6,000 fighters during the four-month-old conflict, half the 12,000 Israel says it has killed.

Gaza's ruling group can keep fighting and is prepared for a long war in Rafah and Gaza, said the official, who requested anonymity.

"Netanyahu's options are difficult and ours are too. He can occupy Gaza but Hamas is still standing and fighting. He hasn't achieved his goals to kill the Hamas leadership or annihilate Hamas," he added.

World leaders fear a humanitarian catastrophe

Trapped between the two sworn enemies are more than a million Palestinian civilians crammed into the city on the Egyptian border, with nowhere left to run, after fleeing Israeli attacks that have laid waste to much of the enclave.

Much of Gaza has been reduced to rubble by Israel. Fighting continues in the southern city of Khan Younis, with sporadic clashes still breaking out in northern areas supposedly cleared.

More than 85% of Gaza's 2.3 million inhabitants have been left homeless. Most of the displaced have sought shelter in Rafah, which had a pre-war population of about 300,000.

"There is no empty space in Rafah, over a million and half people are here. Does the world know that? A slaughter is going to take place if the tanks enter," said Emad Joudat, 55, who fled there with his family early in the war from Gaza City, where he ran a furniture business.

Netanyahu himself said civilians would be allowed to leave the battle zone before the offensive. According to one Israeli security source and an international aid official, who asked not to be identified, Gazans could be screened to weed out any Hamas fighters before being sent northwards. A separate Israeli source said Israel could also build a floating jetty north of Rafah to enable international aid and hospital ships to arrive by sea.

Egypt has sealed off its border to the enclave. But according to three security sources in Egypt, Egypt is nonetheless preparing an area at the border that could accommodate Palestinians, as a contingency should an Israeli offensive into Rafah prompt an exodus across the frontier.

No breakthrough in truce talks

This month, after weeks of negotiations, Hamas proposed a ceasefire of 4-1/2 months during which it would free all Israeli hostages, Israel would withdraw its troops from Gaza and an agreement would be reached on an end to the war.

Netanyahu rejected the offer as "delusional." A new round of talks involving America, Egypt, Israel and Qatar on a truce ended without a breakthrough in Cairo on Tuesday.

Senior American officials see securing a deal to release the remaining hostages in exchange for an extended pause in the conflict as the best path to creating space for broader talks. Yet they're concerned such a deal may not materialize in the coming weeks and war will continue into the Muslim holy month of Ramadan in March and April, which could intensify global criticism of Israel's campaign.

Israel has vowed to wipe out Hamas. It opposed to any deal involving a permanent ceasefire or a Palestinian state, despite U.S. pressure and international outcry over civilian suffering in Gaza.

Hamas leader in Gaza, Yahya Sinwar, will fight to the death rather than surrender or go into exile, according to Hamas and regional officials.

Palestine seeks end to Israeli occupation

Amid the immediate threat of Israel's Rafah assault, Palestinian representatives on Monday asked judges at the UN's highest court to declare Israel's occupation of their territory illegal. The hearing is part of Palestinian efforts to get international legal institutions to examine Israel's conduct. These have stepped up since the breakout of the Israel-Hamas conflicts on October 7.

The requests came at the opening of a week of hearings at the International Court of Justice (ICJ) in The Hague. The UN General Assembly sought an advisory or non-binding, opinion on the occupation in 2022. More than 50 states will present arguments through February 26.

The ICJ's 15-judge panel has been asked to review Israel's "occupation, settlement and annexation ... including measures aimed at altering the demographic composition, character and status of the Holy City of Jerusalem, and from its adoption of related discriminatory legislation and measures."

Israel is not attending the hearings but sent a 5-page written statement published by the court on Monday in which it said an advisory opinion would be "harmful" to attempts to resolve the conflict because the questions posed by the UN General Assembly were prejudiced.

Israel captured the West Bank, Gaza and East Jerusalem - areas of historic Palestine that the Palestinians want for a state - in a 1967 war and has since built settlements in the West Bank and steadily expanded them.

The UN has since 1967 referred to the territories as occupied by Israel and demanded that Israeli forces withdraw, saying it is the only way to secure peace. While Israel has ignored legal opinions in the past, this one could increase political pressure over its attacks in Gaza, which has killed about 29,000 Palestinians since October, according to Gaza health officials.

(With input from Reuters)