A military stalemate in Ukraine's Donetsk region appears to have been broken as recent Russian troop advances marked a significant shift on the battlefield, foreboding a future in limbo on the cusp of the two-year anniversary of the conflict.
Ukraine is now facing growing challenges on its frontlines as a slowing pace of Western aid has led to notable shortages of military supplies and ammunition, the fallout of which was most exemplified last week by Russia's capture of Avdiivka, an eastern Ukrainian town that had been intensely contested for months.
Despite having recently signed security agreements with France and Germany that guarantee their long-term support, Ukraine's current stockpile of munitions may not be adequate, with political wrangling in Washington stalling the delivery of $61 billion in aid proposed by the Biden administration.
The imbalance is made worse by a wide gap in defense spending between Ukraine and Russia, which has earmarked $109 billion for 2024, more than twice that of its neighbor.
On top of that, Ukraine also suffers from a lack of military personnel to confront a mightier enemy, something that was felt in the latest rounds of combat, according to a Reuters report. In December, Russian President Vladimir Putin ordered an increase in his armed forces by 170,000 to 1.3 million, while Ukraine has reported its troop numbers to be around 800,000.
Such shortages will weaken Ukraine's defense lines as it tries to hold them after launching a major counteroffensive in June that failed to bear fruit. The foundering of last year's military push was attributed by experts to the inexperience of Western-trained Ukrainian troops, an underestimation of Russian defenses and poor planning.
What Kyiv did not expect, however, was an abortive mutiny led by Yevgeny Prigozhin, former leader of Russia's Wagner mercenary group, that briefly roiled the morale of Russian troops in the wake of the counteroffensive. It is believed that Prigozhin's rebellion was an implication of Ukraine's vigorous defense of Bakhmut, a strategically important town, whose eventual capture by Russia reportedly caused a significant loss of Wagner fighters earlier that year.
Nonetheless, Ukraine's inability to make significant gains in its counteroffensive has tapered the patience of its Western allies, who were eager to see progress from their backing. More politicians within both the European Union and the U.S. have come out against the continuance of funding Kyiv, chief among them former U.S. President Donald Trump, who is likely to face incumbent Joe Biden in the 2024 presidential election.
The conflict, to which a peace settlement seems distant as talks fizzled out over mutual recrimination, has largely been confined to Ukraine's east and south since the summer of 2022, while the spillover effects have been ratcheting down. The global markets of food and natural gas, which had been upended throughout the first year, have generally stabilized as fighting drags on into its third year.
Ukraine, a major food supplier, has relied on land routes via Europe after the collapse of a deal in July that allowed its grain exports through Black Sea ports, while the EU has reduced its dependence on Russian gas, with the share of pipeline gas imports from Russia dropping from over 40 percent in 2021 to about 8 percent in 2023.
The outbreak of a major Middle East conflict in early October has shifted the international focus away from Ukraine, further dimming Kyiv's prospects of securing more outside support.
In the meantime, the two major victories Russia claimed over the past year have strengthened its position both diplomatically and on the battlefront. With an economy that prioritizes the production of munitions to support its "special military operation," Moscow's strategy of outlasting Ukraine and its Western backers' devotion appears to have made headway. Putin, in a Tuesday address, said Russian troops would push further into Ukrainian territories to build on the success that was achieved after seizing Avdiivka.
Domestic developments in Ukraine have also rendered uncertainties for the course of its fighting against Russia. In a dramatic military shakeup earlier this month, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy sacked army chief Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, who had been holding that position since 2021 and is considered a national hero by many Ukrainians. The move highlighted mounting acrimony between the political leader and the top general, with the two having reportedly clashed over political as well as military matters in the weeks leading up to the dismissal.
Oleksandr Syrsky, head of the ground forces who oversaw the successful defense of Kyiv and the recapture of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city, was appointed to assume the position. "The tasks of 2024 are different," Zelenskyy cited his reasons for the replacement, underlining the present realities on the ground – a shift from the dramatic territorial changes of 2022 into a positional and attritional grind.
Analysts largely agree that the current state of the battlefront will persist at least for months, as both sides need to replenish troops and supplies lost in previous combats. But with the military tide turning in Russia's favor at a time when Western support for Kyiv is faltering, Ukraine may encounter greater difficulties in holding off any future offensives by Russia.
(Cover: Russian servicemen of the 90th Guards Tank Division fire a 2S3 Akatsiya self-propelled howitzer towards Ukrainian positions in the Avdiivka sector of the front line amid Russia's military operation in Ukraine, February 22, 2024. /CFP)