China Agenda 2024 Global Insights: New quality productive forces drive modernization

Editor's Note: As China convenes its annual Two Sessions this year, CGTN's First Voice presents the "China Agenda 2024: Global Insights" video series, featuring exclusive interviews with international experts. These discussions delve into critical and timely issues, offering a comprehensive understanding of China's global standing and its relations with the West. In the second episode of the series, we explore the intricacies of China's modernization drive and its implications on the global stage. The views expressed in the video belong to the experts interviewed and do not necessarily reflect those of CGTN.

China's rise as a global economic powerhouse has been nothing short of remarkable, with the nation transitioning from a poor country to the world's second-largest economy in a span of just 75 years. At the heart of this transformation lies China's relentless pursuit of modernization, fueled by President Xi Jinping's vision of "new quality productive forces." The term encapsulates China's commitment to harnessing emerging technologies and promoting efficiency across sectors, ensuring sustainable and innovation-led growth. 

With China's economy demonstrating resilience, marked by a remarkable 5.2 percent growth in 2023 – a figure that surpassed global expectations – the Two Sessions acquire global significance, particularly amidst the evolving power dynamics between China and the U.S.-led West.

According to Kerry Brown, director of the Lau China Institute at King's College London, "China's modernization drive has been dramatic. China has achieved quite a high level of development, like a middle-income status country."

Sudheendra Kulkarni, geopolitical analyst and former aide to India's former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, echoes this sentiment, stressing the qualitative nature of China's growth. "It's not just a quantitative growth, it is quality as the parameter of growth, qualitative growth, which means basically human development," he notes.

John Mearsheimer, distinguished service professor of political science at the University of Chicago, lauds China's outstanding economic performance over the past decades. "There are very few people in the world who aren't amazed by China's economic performance since roughly 1990."

Global power dynamics

China's burgeoning economic prowess has not gone unnoticed by the U.S.-led West. Mearsheimer acknowledges the United States' apprehension, particularly regarding China's advancements in hi-tech sectors. "It's very important to understand that the United States feels threatened by China's ability to develop cutting-edge technologies," he observes.

Brown, weighs in on the implications of China's potential emergence as the world's leading economy. "In some areas of the planet now, quite a large number in the Global South, China is as important as the United States, maybe more so," says the author of  "China Incorporated: The Politics of a World Where China is Number One."

"I was really struck by how even the possibility that China could have a dominant economy was creating quite a strong response in the rest of the world," he says explaining his reasons for writing the book.

Brown's insights shed light on the complexities of economic interdependence and the challenges posed by decoupling efforts. "The fact that China is still a huge manufacturer, and it would take decades to try and change that, and it would mean a complete change to the United States' economic model." 

Challenges and misconceptions

Despite China's remarkable achievements, misconceptions persist in Western discourse. Critiquing Western predictions of China's imminent collapse, Brown says: "We don't really go on about the collapse of the European economy or the American economy. We tend to think of challenges and structural readjustments. I guess that's not what we do with China. We either think of it being booming or busting and we have a very extreme set of approaches to it." 

He emphasizes the need for nuanced analysis, challenging simplistic narratives of China's economic trajectory.

Sudheendra Kulkarni echoes Brown's sentiments, dismissing Western attempts at decoupling as unrealistic. "The more they try to decouple, the more the American economy will suffer, the European economy will suffer." Kulkarni's assessment underscores the interconnectedness of the global economy and the futility of isolationist policies.

Despite the flawed Western predictions of an impending collapse, the complexities of Chinese modernization and economic prowess, fueled by new quality productive forces, stand resilient and defy simplistic analysis. As China navigates its path of modernization and economic growth, the outcomes of the Two Sessions reverberate globally, shaping the future landscape of international relations and economics. 

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