Where have the flights from Beijing to Washington or New York gone?

Editor's note: John Gong, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a professor at the University of International Business and Economics (UIIBE) and VP-Research and Strategy at the UIBE-Israel. The article reflects the author's views and not necessarily those of CGTN.

For those of us who need to occasionally fly back and forth between China and the U.S., it's widely acknowledged that one of the major casualties of the COVID-19 pandemic is the airline travel between the two sides. I know that because I am scheduled to go to America's East Coast next month and have been checking flight tickets lately.

Last time when checking the ticket-booking website, I found that not only the airfares are exorbitantly high (compared to the price in the pre-pandemic era), but the choices for airlines between cities like Beijing and New York City, are also pathetically limited. And it's a bit absurd to notice that there are no direct flights from Beijing or Shanghai to New York City or Washington, D.C.

Although the number of flights between the two countries is gradually increasing, there is no "open skies" agreement between China and the U.S., which generally refers to an agreement that allows unrestricted flights between countries. Actually, the permitted number of flights is negotiated by the two respective regulatory authorities, the Civil Aviation Administration of China (CACCC) and the Department of Transportation (DOT) in the United States.

Before the pandemic, there were more than 150 weekly round-trip flights allowed by each side. A few days ago, the DOT announced that from March 31, Chinese carriers will be able to fly 50 weekly round trips to the United States, up from 35 currently. Presumably, CAAC also reciprocates with the same for American carriers originating flights from there. That is a progress much applauded, but still an outcry compared to the pre-pandemic level.

Why is that? China has totally opened up, wholeheartedly opening arms to welcome foreign visitors. In fact, China recently announced unilaterally visa-free entry policies for a good number of countries. But then why are there so few flights between the two largest economies, particularly to and from America's East Coast cities?

CNN reported after the DOT announcement that "the DOT said it had decided after assessing market conditions and considering the public interest." That is far from enough regarding the actual needs. As far as I know, the market conditions are ripe to support many more flights across the Pacific just based on my personal talking with a few friends.

The real reason has to do with U.S. sanctions on Russia, which effectively prohibit U.S. carriers from flying over Russian airspace for flights to or from China. According to a report by the Financial Times in April last year, U.S. carriers are lobbying the DOT not to grant Chinese carriers new flights, especially to the East Coast, due to the cost gap of flying over Russian airspace. That is why the flights granted by the DOT so far are all predominantly to the West Coast.

Since it's understandable that there are concerns over U.S. carriers' cost disadvantage if Chinese carriers are to fly over Russian airspace, and that not doing so wastes fuel and adds more air pollution, I propose two possible solutions.

First, the allocation of routes can be optimized to bypass the cost disadvantage issue. CACCC and DOT can work out an agreement that grants routes originating from the West Coast to U.S. carriers, and routes to the East Coast to Chinese carriers who are still allowed to use the Russian airspace.

Second, there could be a form of understanding between the two regulatory authorities, not necessarily an agreement, that imposes a price floor, such as a few percentage points lower than the average market prices, for flights to or from the East Coast. The Chinese side can also implement some likewise responsive measures. This would prevent Chinese carriers from undercutting market prices without compromising the fuel-saving flight routes over the Russian airspace.

In conclusion, it's necessary for the CAAC and the DOT to hammer out some practical solutions to simultaneously achieve the goals of increasing flights between China and the U.S. and flying in a way that reduces emissions.

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