Why China will be able to achieve goal of 'new quality productive forces'

Editor's note: Shakeel Ahmad Ramay, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is the CEO of the Asian Institute of Eco-civilization in Pakistan. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Chinese President Xi Jinping coined a new term, "new quality productive forces," during his visit to northeast China in September 2023. The term was a buzzword at the "Two Sessions." The leadership and policymakers are exploring the terminology and chalking out plans to achieve the objectives of the "new quality productive forces" concept.

The decoding of the term indicates that it will be a complete overhaul of production forces from agriculture to industry to modern technology. China will have to modernize its production forces, pursue the agenda of green growth, and construct ecological civilization. It will be a gigantic task; the question is, will China be able to achieve it? Let's try to find answers from facts and data.

First of all, it is not a random political slogan or dream selling. President Xi has been preparing for this transformation for many years. He adopted a holistic approach, concentrating on sectors of the economy and segments of society. He introduced many concepts and policies like the "new development philosophy," "high-quality development," and among others. These were designed to modernize the production base, enhance the role of green production and consumption, equal development opportunities, and build a modern society.

On the other hand, China launched numerous programs for the agriculture sector under the Made in China, Rural Revitalization, Modern Protected Agriculture Development Plan 2023-2030, etc. China pinned agriculture as the bedrock of building a modern socialist country.

However, China was cognizant of the fact that without investing in research and development, it could not dream about modernization. Therefore, the Chinese government enhanced allocations for research and development (R&D), which increased from 1.9 percent of GDP in 2012 to 2.5 percent in 2022. In addition, international organizations predicted that China would increase R&D allocation by 7 percent annually. The data from recent allocations can support the argument. For example, in 2022, China allocated $420.9 billion for R&D, up by 10.1 percent year-on-year basis.

Chinese companies are also following in the footsteps of the government. Due to government incentives and policy support, Chinese companies have multiplied their investment in R&D, which surpassed European companies in 2021. Chinese companies invested 195.9 billion euros ($212.6 billion), and European companies invested 192.8 billion euros ($209.3 billion). In 2022, China's global share was calculated at 17.8 percent, second only to the U.S. It was a big achievement for China, as China's contribution to global R&D was only 4.3 percent in 2012. The information and communication technology sector attracted a major chunk of spending.

However, China is cognizant of the fact that quality human capital is a prerequisite to modernizing or building an innovation base. High-quality human capital is required to build a strong base of primary scientific research, which helps to develop capabilities to create knowledge and lead innovation. Thanks to the government's dedicated efforts, China now has the biggest pool of Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics (STEM) graduates.

According to Georgetown University, China surpassed the U.S. in producing STEM Ph.D. graduates in 2007. Further, it was pointed out that the number of STEM graduates in China will double compared to the number of STEM Ph.D. graduates in the U.S. in 2025.

The efforts are paying off, and China is now emerging as a leading player in technology innovation and development. China has become a leader in 37 of 44 critical technologies. It is a massive turnaround for a country that was considered a laggard in technology development. Now, China is moving quickly and acquiring the capability to become the hub and superpower in a wide range of areas, including defense, space, robotics, energy, the environment, biotechnology, artificial intelligence, advanced materials, and key quantum technology.

China is also diverting hefty resources towards agriculture R&D. This boosted agriculture production values, which were recorded at $1.6 trillion at the farm gate.

Against this backdrop, we can now assess China's capacity to pursue and achieve the objectives of "new quality productive forces." Multiple factors suggest that China can pursue its objectives.

First, China is a leading force in the fields of innovation and technological development. It is leading in the most critical technologies like artificial technology, nanoscale material, manufacturing, smart materials, advanced explosives, energetic materials, hydrogen and ammonia for power, electric batteries, photonic sensors, etc.

Second, China has applied a comprehensive plan. It focuses on all areas of the economy, defense, and society.

Third, China is equally focused on the environmental needs. China believes that development will not serve humans without giving due importance to environmental needs. Thus, it strives to create harmony between human development and environmental needs.

In conclusion, based on the above discussion, China will likely be able to achieve the goal of new quality productive forces. It is expected that this will create new opportunities for the world, as China is a new hub of the world economy, connectivity, and trade. China has already established different programs and mechanisms to share the dividend of development and prosperity, such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Global Development Initiative, which further strengthens the argument.

However, the path to achieving the goal of "new quality productive forces" will not be easy. It will be full of hurdles like tech wars, sanctions, and trade barriers. China will have to fight on two fronts: It will have to invest in modernizing production forces. Meanwhile, it will have to fight de-globalization and anti-China forces. Thus, it is advised that China should apply the traditional wisdom of patience and humbleness and create partnerships for win-win cooperation.

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