Divisions, military provocations to dominate NATO FMs meeting

Editor's note: Hannan Hussain, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a foreign affairs commentator and author. He is a Fulbright recipient at the University of Maryland in the U.S., and a former assistant researcher at the Islamabad Policy Research Institute. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

From April 3 to 4, foreign ministers of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) member states are meeting in Brussels to mark the 75th anniversary of the bloc's founding. This year's meeting is particularly significant, considering that 18 of 31 NATO allies are expected to ramp-up defense spending to at least 2 percent of their GDP. This would mark a six-fold spending increase over the past decade. Moreover, NATO's embrace of military might as a measure of "strength" indicates profound challenges for Europe, and its strategic autonomy, and fares ominously for world peace.

First, greater military spending has not brought Europe closer to long-term peace and stability. NATO chief Jens Stoltenberg has used Russia's military operations in Ukraine to justify NATO's record-setting military spending, projecting it as an imperative that would strengthen European security in the long run, but a consistent pivot towards military expansion will bolster NATO's offensive capabilities, which challenges the goal of credible deterrence. A six-fold increase in spending can also play a leading role in heightening NATO's threat perceptions towards the East.

Consider Russia. It has already warned that NATO is preparing allies for conflict with Moscow, making it imperative to address such perceptions by dialing down risks of military expansion, but NATO's spending threshold this year indicates a trend to the contrary. Nations such as Germany are compelled to follow bloc dictates on greater spending to support the optics of "unity."

Similarly, NATO is set to tout long-term security for its newest European member states, but is pushing ahead with the construction of its largest military base in Europe, indicating a hostile posture. Thus, a more hawkish and confrontational NATO military policy marks a challenge to Europe's overall strategic autonomy, compelling it to place important levers of peace on the backburner. These include effective crisis resolution and consultative diplomacy to bring rising conflicts to a close.

Interestingly, NATO foreign ministers are also meeting at a time when the bloc is holding its biggest military exercise since the Cold War. Dubbed "Steadfast Defender 24," this exercise is slated to last till the end of May, bringing together some 90,000 troops from 32 countries, and is aimed at testing how well NATO would respond in the event of an attack on one of its member states.

NATO's view of an impending attack is driven by hypotheticals, and its ongoing exercise attempts to justify invocation of Article 5 of NATO's mutual defense clause. The pattern of military deployments also suggests that NATO is razor-focused on stepping up threat perceptions with Russia. For instance, the military activities are set to span the plains of Poland and Norway, and also the strategically sensitive Baltic States. These are the sites of NATO's remilitarization against the Russia threat.

By justifying its exercise as central to NATO's future war preparedness, the bloc continues to compromise the spirit of collective security in its pursuit for absolute strength. Sophisticated weaponry and defense equipment in the exercise suggest that NATO has learned little from its past mistakes.

Thus, NATO continues to cling to profound military expansion at the expense of credible world peace. Ministers will meet as key NATO countries walk a tightrope on the alliance's military policy, balking at the risk of direct confrontation.

Given deep divisions and an aggressive military posture, NATO will be ill-advised to treat the 75th anniversary mark as a cause for triumph rather than glaring introspection.

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