Japan's strengthened alliance with U.S. sparks regional conflict concerns

The newly upgraded military initiatives of Japan's alliance with the United States are exaggerating camp confrontation, increasing the risk of conflict and threatening regional peace and stability, said a spokesperson of the Chinese Embassy in Japan on Thursday.  

In the first speech to a joint meeting of the U.S. Congress by a Japanese leader in nine years, Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Thursday highlighted "unprecedented challenges" from China.

"China's current external stance and military actions present an unprecedented challenge and the greatest strategic one, not only to the peace and security of Japan but to the peace and stability of the international community at large," he said.

Before his speech to the Congress, the Japanese prime minister and U.S. President Joe Biden unveiled a series of initiatives aimed at deepening military and economic collaboration between their nations.

'Japanese statements unsurprising'

"Kishida's statements against China have long been unsurprising," Liu Jiangyong, vice dean of the Institute of Modern International Relations at Tsinghua University, said to CGTN.    

"Currently, Japan is not just following the lead of the United States. Instead, Japan wants to play a leading role in its relationship with China and the United States, reflecting the so-called 'autonomy,' and exacerbating the competitive relationship between China and the United States," he said.

"Japan also intends to use such rhetoric to break through the constitutional constraints and become a country with the right to initiate war."

For Japan, one of the most important interests is the issue of "sovereignty" over the Diaoyu Islands, Liu said.

Liu said that the problem dates back to 2012, when the cabinet of former Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda unilaterally announced the "nationalization" of the Diaoyu Islands. "Since then, Chinese law enforcement patrols have been regularized for more than a decade. Japan sees China as its biggest strategic challenge, and was unable to stop it at the time, so it has woven a larger strategic net to encircle China, such as building up its military strength to gain local advantages."

Japan continues to play up the "China threat theory" because it wants to use it to break through constitutional constraints and become a country that "has the right to initiate wars," he said.

AUKUS eyes Japan

During Kishida's trip to the U.S., an announcement, made by the White House signaling the contemplation of collaboration with Japan "on AUKUS Pillar II advanced capability projects," has raised concern in the international community.

This is the first time since the establishment of the alliance in September 2021 that the three countries have made such announcement. Japanese officials responded by saying they "recognized" the importance of AUKUS.  

AUKUS, a trilateral security partnership for the Indo-Pacific region between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States, encompasses two main pillars. While the first pillar revolves around deployment of nuclear submarines in Australia and the joint development and construction of the next generation of nuclear submarines, the second pillar focuses on delivering advanced capabilities and sharing technologies across a range of areas including quantum computing, undersea, hypersonic, artificial intelligence and cyber technologies.

At the strategic level, these countries also have their own motives. The United States regards AUKUS as a key part of its Indo-Pacific strategy, and wants to attract more allies, especially Japan, which possesses advanced technology and is constantly breaking through constitutional constraints, in order to achieve its aim of "containing China," Liu said.

"Japan, on the other hand, wants to use AUKUS as a new tool to pursue its military agenda in the Asia-Pacific and to contain China."

Australia has not been very active in the past because it was worried that a new member would delay its own submarine research and development program. However, due to the serious delay in the progress of the first pillar of cooperation, the Australian side had to look forward to the second pillar of cooperation, and decided to support the inclusion of Japan, a CMG commentator said.

According to the framework of the second pillar, the United States needs to develop weapons. Since it lacks funds for the research and development process, the U.S. found an obedient, money-rich Japan in the list of its allies. Secondly, the United States wants to share the privilege of its U.S. Forces Japan with its AUKUS allies, so as to gather military allies and turn Japan into a "military hostel" for the United States and its allies, Wei Dongxu, a Beijing-based military expert, said to CMG.

Liu Jiangyong also pointed out that, despite the consideration of Japan's involvement in AUKUS, there are lingering trust issues between the U.S. and Japan.

"On the issue of Japan's possible membership in AUKUS, the United States restricts discussions to the second pillar, only focusing on developing joint capabilities in fields like anti-submarine and supersonic missiles. However, regarding the first pillar involving delivering nuclear submarines and related technology to Australia by the United Kingdom and the United States, the U.S. remains silent towards Japan," he said, indicating a cautious approach from the U.S. side.

Regional security at risk

Last week, U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell implied that AUKUS submarines could be deployed in a variety of scenarios, including in "cross-Straits circumstances."

The U.S. attempt to link the AUKUS situation to "cross-Straits circumstances" is a means to increase its control over the Asia-Pacific region and its allies, and also to intensify confrontation and an arms race in the region, Bai Mengchen, a Beijing-based military expert, said to CMG.

The ultimate aim is to leverage resources from other nations to advance U.S. nuclear submarine technology and bolster deployment in the region, Bai explained.

"Instead of caring whether Australia acquires nuclear-powered submarines or not, the U.S. only cares about how much money it can extract from these countries and whether it can promote the development of its own nuclear submarine industry."

Ukeru Magosaki, director of the East Asian Community Institute, said that Japan and the Republic of Korea (ROK) would both suffer significant losses if a military conflict were to erupt in the region.

"While a military conflict in East Asia could have significant repercussions, the United States itself would remain largely unaffected," Magosaki said.

"Therefore, it is in the United States' interest to encourage Japan and the ROK to take actions that heighten regional tensions.”