Iran warns against counterattack after first direct strike on Israel

Iran's mission to the United Nations said early Sunday that Tehran's retaliation for an attack on its diplomatic compound in Syria has ended, warning Israel against "another mistake" after Iran's first-ever military strike on Israeli territory.

The statement came after the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) launched a suite of explosive drones and fired missiles at Israel late Saturday, further raising tensions between the two countries over Israel's alleged killing of senior IRGC commanders in Damascus earlier this month.

"Should the Israeli regime make another mistake, Iran's response will be considerably more severe. It is a conflict between Iran and the rogue Israeli regime, from which the U.S. MUST STAY AWAY!" the Iranian mission said on social media platform X.

Sirens wailed, and loud sounds of aerial interceptions of explosive drones reverberated across Israel. The Israel Defense Forces said nearly all of what it counted were 300 missiles and drones had been intercepted. Media reports said U.S., British, French and Jordanian forces had also shot down dozens of drones.

The Iranian salvo inflicted minor damage on one military base in Israel, and a 7-year-old girl sustained critical injury, a military spokesperson said. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had previously placed its troops on full alert and sent dozens of combat planes airborne in anticipation of the attack.

Still in the early hours of Sunday, a senior Israeli official vowed to respond in an "unprecedented" way and urged Israelis to remain awake for what might be coming afterward, according to local media Channel 12. Later, Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said the first major wave of Iranian strikes was repelled, but the confrontation is not yet over.

"In recent years, and especially in recent weeks, Israel has been preparing for a direct attack by Iran. Our defensive systems are deployed; we are ready for any scenario, both defensively and offensively," Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a statement.

In his first public statement after a two-hour situation assessment with members of his war cabinet, Netanyahu did not expound on whether Israel will retaliate, although Gallant on Thursday pledged an "appropriate response" against such a strike, which Tehran had vowed to launch.

Israel has rarely shown restraint in the past as it often opted to project deterrence against its regional foes, but it did once bow to U.S. pressure, refraining from launching a retaliatory attack on Iraq after former leader Saddam Hussein ordered missiles strikes on Israeli territory during the Gulf War in 1991.

As for this time, "the key question lies in whether Israel suffered civilian casualties," Wei Liang, an associate research fellow of the Institute of West-Asian and African Studies of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, told CGTN.

In Washington, U.S. President Joe Biden, an ardent supporter of Israel's ongoing war in Gaza, cut short his weekend vacation and met with his national security team, after which he pledged a coordinated G7 response and reaffirmed the U.S.' commitment to Israel's security as "ironclad" on X.

During a phone call, he told Netanyahu that Washington will oppose any Israeli counterattack against Iran, a senior White House official told Axios. "You got a win. Take the win," Biden said, referring to the absence of anything of "value" being hit.

De-escalatory tone

Iran's strike marked a break from its restrained response to Israel's invasion of Gaza, a six-month-long military operation that was prompted by Hamas' October 7 attack on southern Israel. A Hamas ally, Iran views Israel and the U.S. as the cause for plight and instability in the Middle East. It has consistently vowed to expel them from the region.

But while Iran-aligned groups, including Hezbollah in Lebanon and militia groups in Iraq and Syria, stepped up attacks on Israel or U.S. assets in the region as the Gaza conflict unfolded, Tehran has worked to rein in some of the groups when tensions reached a breaking point. In February, Iraqi militias ceased their hostilities against U.S. military personnel following a request from the commander of Iran's elite Quds Force, according to a Reuters report.

In a balancing act, Tehran has been trying to project strength and show solidarity with the Palestinians in Gaza while avoiding major escalations that threaten a regional war, but when backed into a corner, analysts say it had no better option but to wade into uncharted territory.

The retaliatory attack was an inevitable response as the United Nations Security Council failed to condemn Israel's alleged attack on Iran's consulate in Damascus, Wei said.

In the X statement, Iran's mission to the UN has invoked Article 51 of the UN Charter for the exercise of its "legitimate right" to self-defense, which occurred after "a 13-day period marked by the Security Council's inaction and silence."

But Iran's warning about an Israeli response indicated its unwillingness to see the expansion of hostilities into a major Middle Eastern conflict or a full-blown war between the two countries – a de-escalatory tone that's directed toward both Israel and the U.S., Wei said.

War between Israel and Iran would "incur tremendous security, social and economic damage to the Islamic Republic," he said.

In another sign of caution, Iran claimed on Sunday it had given the U.S. and Israel's neighboring countries 72 hours' notice it would launch the strike, a move that would have allowed them to make preparatory arrangements.

'Important message'

The strike came at a time when Israel's position was increasingly tenuous, with rifts between Netanyahu and Biden widened and more Western allies having voiced their criticism of Israel's military conduct in Gaza. However, Western powers' support for Israel appears to not have waned when the stakes are high.

"The fact that such an attack was successfully blocked, also via close cooperation between Israel, Western allies and regional partners - sends an important message," Nimrod Goren, a senior fellow for Israeli affairs at the Middle East Institute, a think tank based in Washington, told CGTN.

Even though Israel is under U.S. pressure over the situation in Gaza, their "joint interests are still very much in play," Goren said.

The risk of a widening conflict has raised alarm across the world. "I strongly condemn the serious escalation represented by the large-scale attack launched on Israel by the Islamic Republic of Iran this evening. I call for an immediate cessation of these hostilities," UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres said.

Germany, France, Britain and Israel's other Western allies have also denounced the attack.

Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and other Arab countries have called for restraint.

China has voiced its deep concerns about the situation, urging all sides to remain calm and exercise restraint.