NBA playoffs preview: Can Luka Doncic beat Clippers this time?

There is only one match-up confirmed in the coming NBA playoffs before the play-in tournament next week: The Dallas Mavericks will face the Los Angeles Clippers in the first-round competitions in the Western Conference.

It will be the third meeting between the Clippers and the Mavericks' ace, Luka Doncic, in the postseason since he entered the league in 2018. In the previous two series in 2020 and 2021, Doncic averaged 31 points, 9.8 rebounds and 8.7 assists per game in the series in 2020 and 35.7 points, 7.9 rebounds and 10.3 assists per game in 2021.

However, his epic numbers failed to keep the Mavericks from losing to the Clippers 4-2 in 2020 and 4-3 in 2021. The developments of both series were similar to each other: The Clippers had nearly nobody to stop Doncic from dominating the floor, but fatigue began to catch him from Game 6. Meanwhile, when Kawhi Leonard stepped out to take over the Clippers' offense in the fourth quarters of every game, whoever the Mavericks sent to guard him meant no difference at all.

The scenario may be different in 2024. In Doncic's first four seasons in the NBA, the Mavericks had been trying to build their roster to maximize his offensive power. As a result, Doncic shouldered a much bigger role than any other one of the team on this end of the game. If he struggled to make shots, the team would have the second solid scoring option. Moreover, his teammates were either 3-point shooters, stretch fours or mini-size centers. In other words, most of them were not built to be good defenders as they lacked both size and power.

This year, Doncic has next to him Kyrie Irving, who has been one of the league's top isolation scorers since he arrived in 2011. Considering their firepower, there is no team in NBA history able to contain both of them at the same time. Furthermore, the Mavericks have equipped their roster with P.J. Washington, Daniel Gafford and Derrick Lively II. They may not stop Leonard from scoring during clutch time, but at least they can make him sweat more to do his job.

Compared with the Mavericks that have absolutely grown better, the Clippers were weakened, especially on the defensive end, from the franchise three years ago. Both Leonard and Paul George are older; the team no longer has a player like Nicolas Batum who can do a little bit of everything in a small-ball squad; James Harden will definitely face constant attacks from Irving due to his slow defensive footwork; Russell Westbrook will be a double-edged sword on the court.

As for the Clippers' choices of guarding Doncic, they have Terance Mann, Amir Coffey and Brandon Boston Jr. for a battle of attrition, but none of them seems able to slow Doncic down when he is in full strength. P.J. Tucker will be coach Tyronn Lue's wild card since he is strong enough to match Doncic in power and has rich experience of guarding the NBA's best offensive weapon like Kevin Durant. Nonetheless, Tucker is 38 years old and once ruled out of the Clippers' rotations for good reasons: he is much slower than before, which is lethal for a 1.96-meter-tall big man; he has nothing to contribute offensively and that will benefit the opponents on defense.

Judging by the coaching performances of Lue and Jason Kidd this season, both prefer to go with small-ball lineups for clutch time in close games. The Mavericks have Washington and Maxi Kleber to play center on such occasions. Tucker is not necessarily trustworthy of the role for the Clippers. Lue tried Westbrook and Leonard as the small-ball center, but the former is too extreme to be repeated. The latter may result in unwanted consequences.

In his 13th NBA season, Leonard averaged career-high 34.3 minutes per game in 68 appearances, the third-most of his career, during the 2023-24 campaign. He hasn't played a minute since the beginning of April due to persistent knee soreness. The good news is that he seems to have enough time for recovery and recharging before the playoffs begin. The bad news, however, is that he is going through one of the most loaded seasons in his career at 32 and endurance has never been his forte. If the Clippers count on him to score, guard Doncic and play center in every game, even if only for certain periods of time, they may have to worry about his health before the series is over.