From shadow war to direct military conflict, Iran-Israel confrontation enters new phase: experts

The confrontation between Iran and Israel has entered a new phase as the latest development is transforming the years-long "shadow war" between the two sides into a direct military conflict, experts said on Friday, warning of a likelihood of retaliation from Iran to Israel's latest attack.

"There is a high possibility that Iran will launch retaliatory strikes in response to Israel's latest attack. But the attack will be restrained and not on a large scale," Dong Manyuan, deputy director of the China Institute of International Studies, told CGTN on Friday.

"Iran has warned that it would respond 'at a maximum level' in case of further Israeli military actions against it. However, the manner of Iran's response cannot be confirmed at present, as it actually depends on the severity of damage in Iran caused by Israel's attack on Thursday," the expert added.

Israeli missiles hit a site in Iran, ABC News reported late on Thursday, citing a U.S. official, while Iranian state media reported explosions, days after Iran launched a retaliatory missile and drone strike on Israel.

Iran's Fars news agency reported "three explosions" were heard near the Shekari army airbase in the northwest of Isfahan Province, while Iran's space agency spokesman Hossein Dalirian said "several" drones had been "successfully shot down."

"There are no reports of a missile attack for now," Dalirian said on social media platform X.

Iran suspended flights and activated its air defense system over several cities, multiple media outlets reported on Friday, citing Iran's official news agency, IRNA. 

Israel has not commented on the latest attack yet. However, it had said it would respond to Iran's attack on Israel last weekend, which was a response to attacks on an Iranian consulate in Syria in early April.

Ahmad Haqtalab, commander of the Islamic Revolution Guards Corps unit for protecting the country's nuclear sites, threatened on Thursday to target Israel's "nuclear facilities" should it attack Iran's nuclear sites.

"Actually, both Israel and Iran worry that the recent attacks between the two sides will lead to the escalation of tensions and the situation going out of control. But they are trapped in a cycle of revenge due to serious internal and external challenges," said Li Zixin, an assistant research fellow at the Department for Developing Countries Studies, China Institute of International Studies.

"The current military conflict between Israel and Iran is actually the spillover of the conflict in the Gaza Strip. The direct military conflict between them will inevitably have a negative impact on the situation in Gaza and the Palestinian question," Li said.

"Negotiations for a ceasefire in Gaza have been going on for a long time, yet we have yet to see progress. With the escalation of military confrontation between Israel and Iran, the ceasefire negotiations in Gaza will face more difficulties in the future. Israel is even less likely to make compromises with Hamas in such a complex geopolitical environment," Dong said.

"The Palestine-Israel conflict can only be solved in the long run based on the two-state solution," Dong added.