Philippines' faithless acts are a source of regional instability

Editor's note: Dai Fan, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is the vice dean of the School of International Studies at the Guangzhou-based Jinan University. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

On April 27, Philippine Defense Secretary Gilberto Teodoro said that his department was "not aware of, nor is it a party to, any internal agreement with China" on the South China Sea (SCS) dispute since President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr. took office. This startling statement came hot on the heels of similar denials by Philippine President Marcos and National Security Adviser Eduardo Ano, adding yet another layer to their collective amnesia regarding the gentlemen's agreement about Ren'ai Jiao.

Rewinding the tape to the origin of this gentlemen's agreement reveals a masterclass in historical negligence and diplomatic backpedaling by the Philippines. Ren'ai Jiao is an uninhabited reef within the Nansha Qundao (the Nansha Islands). The Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC), signed by China and ASEAN countries including the Philippines, explicitly states in Article 5 that the uninhabited islands and reefs in the South China Sea should maintain their state of hosting zero personnel and facilities.

However, on May 9, 1999, the Philippine military vessel "BRP Sierra Madre" was illegally run aground on Ren'ai Jiao. Following a flurry of stern diplomatic reprimands from China, the Philippines repeatedly promised to tow away the intruding vessel and vowed that it would not be the first to violate the DOC. Fast forward 25 years, and the Philippines has failed to fulfill its promise of towing away the ship.

During former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte's premiership, a gentlemen's agreement about Ren'ai Jiao materialized between both countries to stabilize the situation in the SCS. According to this agreement, the Philippines pledged to stop sending construction materials to the beleaguered military vessel, and in return, China agreed to facilitate the delivery of supplies to the marooned ship.

Hence, the gentlemen's agreement was not a secret deal, nor did it have anything to do with sovereign positions. It was, instead, a pragmatic handshake allowing both countries to set aside a dispute, sideline meddlesome outsiders, and pivot towards improving bilateral relations. In essence, the agreement was a strategic arrangement that helped maintain regional stability, reduce tensions, and build mutual trust.

Since the present incumbent Philippine administration came into power in June 2022 until early February 2023, both sides adhered to this agreement. Moreover, China had repeatedly briefed and negotiated with the top echelons of the Philippine administration regarding the execution of the gentlemen's agreement.

In 2023, China invited a special envoy from the Philippines to discuss a way of managing the situation around Ren'ai Jiao and reached a mutual understanding. Earlier this year, China again negotiated with the Philippines through diplomatic channels, with both sides agreeing on a "new model" for resupplying the stranded ship. However, after a single performance, this new arrangement was unilaterally scrapped by the Philippines without any justification.

It's evident that the Philippine leadership's ignorance about the gentlemen's agreement established by the previous administration with China is nothing short of theatrical pretense. This brazen denial shines a spotlight on two glaring truths: Firstly, the Philippine government's credibility is as shaky as a stage prop; secondly, chaos in their political and diplomatic decision-making has sadly become the norm.

Why does the Philippines keep provoking China in the SCS by breathlessly shuttling construction materials to a shipwreck every few days? One likely explanation is that the stranded ship is so decrepit that the Philippines has to play dumb, scheme against China, and behave dishonorably by breaking its promises.

Another plausible theory is that in the context of the United States viewing China as the "greatest strategic competitor," the Philippines is trying to leverage U.S. power to reinforce its illegally marooned warship in a bid for a permanent squat on Ren'ai Jiao. To this end, it's willing to act as a pawn for U.S. involvement in regional affairs.

During a recent visit to the U.S. by President Marcos, Filipino protesters were quick to point out that the Philippines is being unwittingly scripted into the so-called First Island Chain which is a component of America's geopolitical strategy to contain China. They argued that Marcos is essentially following in his father's footsteps, dutifully playing the loyal servant to U.S. interests in the Philippines, and transforming the nation into a "new colony" to prop up American imperial ambitions in the Asia-Pacific.

Although the Philippines has been independent for nearly 80 years, the vestiges of colonialism are deeply ingrained in its social fabric. Today, the U.S. deftly manipulates this "new colony," using the SCS dispute to meddle in regional affairs, casting its gaze towards the Taiwan Straits, keeping China in check, and securing its spot as the global hegemon – a plot so transparent it might as well be on a billboard.

It's no news that the U.S. and its allies have long been thick as thieves on international issues, deliberately misrepresenting facts and interfering in other countries' internal affairs without regard for international justice. However, China, as a rising power, does not seek hegemony but is also unafraid of any superpower.

"If you're not at the table, you're going to be on the menu" – in the cold, calculating eyes of Uncle Sam, interests are the only currency that matters. As the U.S. crosses the line by deploying medium-range ballistic missiles to the Philippines, regional tensions are expected to worsen. The Philippines, busy running errands for the U.S., is essentially playing with fire and inviting disaster into its own backyard.

Denying the China-Philippines gentlemen's agreement casts the Philippines not just as a historical amnesiac but as a duplicitous troublemaker stirring the regional pot. It would be a wise move if the Philippines could respect history, keep promises, dial down the provocations, and get back to the negotiation table.

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