The more DPP provokes, the earlier its doomsday arrives

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The Eastern Theater Command of the Chinese People's Liberation Army (PLA) launched Joint Sword-2024A military drills in the Taiwan Strait, the north, south, and east of Taiwan Island, as well as areas around the islands of Kinmen, Matsu, Wuqiu and Dongyin on Thursday.

The military move, which comes three days after Lai Ching-te's provocative inaugural speech as the new leader of China's Taiwan region, demonstrates the Chinese government's resolve to safeguard the country's territorial integrity and the PLA's ability to fight in real combat conditions. It is a strong signal to Lai and exterior forces: "Taiwan independence" is a dead end.

New breakthroughs

The fiercer "pro-independence" forces provoke, the stronger the Chinese mainland counteracts. In his Monday address, Lai delivered a "pro-independence" message with unprecedented candor. This prompts new breakthroughs in the PLA's military drills.

Compared with previous drills, Joint Sword-2024A has a larger scale focusing on joint sea-air combat-readiness patrol, joint seizure of comprehensive battlefield control, and joint precision strikes on key targets, and covers broader areas involving the patrol of vessels and planes closing in on areas around the island of Taiwan and integrated operations inside and outside the island chain.

It is also the first time that the mainland's coast guard vessels entered waters around Wuqiu and Dongyin islands. Official maps of the drill areas showed that the vessels were sailing only about 2.8 nautical miles off Wuqiu and 3.2 nautical miles off Dongyin, destroying the notion of so-called restricted waters imposed by the Taiwan authority.

"With significant geographical, strategic and military values, the outlying islands of Wuqiu and Dongyin are viewed by Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) authorities as outposts of their defense operations in the Strait," said Zhang Chi from the National Defense University. He added that the PLA's military activities in the area have further squeezed the operation space of Taiwan authorities.

The PLA has also escalated its tactics by simulating a blockade of the Taiwan Island. "This time, the PLA's exercise focused on practicing the new model of blockade," Zhang said. Geographically isolated, Taiwan relies heavily on imports, especially oil and other energy consumption, for survival and development. If blocked, Taiwan would become a dead island with its economic collapse an inevitable result.

"Independence" as precise target

The mainland's joint military drills are precisely targeted at "independence." The exercises serve as a "strong punishment for the separatist acts of 'Taiwan independence' forces and a stern warning against the interference and provocation by external forces," said Li Xi, spokesperson for the PLA's Eastern Theater Command.

The exercises, designed with the south, east, north of the Taiwan Island in mind, are intended to cut Taiwan's lifeline of imports and the escape route for "Taiwan independence" forces, Zheng Hong from China's Naval Research Academy told CGTN.

To the south of the island, the PLA's operations are seen as a heavy strike to Tainan, known as the "camp" for "pro-independence" forces. The exercises are also targeting Kaohsiung, Taiwan's largest port and an important garrison for the Taiwanese "navy." To the east of Taiwan, the drills are to block "Taiwan independence" forces from seeking exterior "support" and fleeing abroad. The operations in the northern part of Taiwan are to deter political and military targets in Taipei.

Clearly, the mainland's joint drills indicate that its military hardware is already in place against "pro-independence" forces in Taiwan. The more provocative the DPP becomes, the earlier its doomsday arrives.

For many observers, the codename of the exercise Joint Sword-2024A suggests more military operations targeting Taiwan with codenames Joint Sword-2024B and Joint Sword-2024C could be expected this year. "This feels like a prelude to more and bigger military drills to come," Wen-ti Sung, a political analyst at the Australian National University, said on X.

The intensity and frequency of the mainland's military activities depend entirely on the extent of the DPP's provocations. Reunification is the only result of Lai's dangerous pursuit of "Taiwan independence."

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