What will the Chinese and U.S. defense chiefs discuss in Singapore?

China's Ministry of National Defense announced on Monday that Minister Dong Jun will attend the annual Asia-Pacific premier defense summit Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore from May 31 to June 2.

Dong will give a speech at the summit and meet the heads of delegations of related countries, according to the announcement.

Calling formal talks between the Chinese defense minister and U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin in Singapore a "highly probable event," experts say they may focus on hot spot issues, including the South China Sea and the situation in the Taiwan Straits.

What are they likely to discuss?

The U.S. Defense Department on Friday confirmed Secretary Lloyd Austin's participation in the Shangri-La Dialogue and said he is expected to meet with his Chinese counterpart in Singapore.

Based on official information from both sides, "it is highly likely that the Chinese and U.S. defense ministers will meet and even hold formal talks," said Yan Zhanyu, a researcher on national security and governance from the School of International Relations at the University of International Business and Economics in China.

It will be the first talks between the two defense leaders since a video call in April. It came as China-U.S. high-level military contacts continued to resume after the two heads of state agreed to restart military dialogue in November's San Francisco meeting.

In early April, the two countries' militaries held an annual working group meeting of the Military Maritime Consultative Agreement, the first major military meeting between them since December 2021.

Regarding Dong and Austin's meeting in Singapore, Yan told CGTN that the primary purpose was to continue the China-U.S. dialogue mechanism in the military field and ensure they can communicate effectively at the theater level.

Zhu Feng, an expert on China-U.S. relations and executive director of the School of International Relations at China's Nanjing University, also believes a formal face-to-face dialogue between Chinese and U.S. defense leaders in Singapore is a "highly probable event."

He said the U.S. and China urgently need to conduct military communication and exchanges on how to handle the two militaries in the event of air and sea encounters and accidents while further clarifying their respective policies and strategic intentions in the South China Sea. 

Yan said the two defense ministers may also discuss the situation in the Taiwan Straits to keep their communication channels smooth and prevent misjudgment.

He added that they may also discuss the issues related to the Korean Peninsula situation, the Russian-Ukrainian conflict and the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, as well as non-traditional security issues, such as the arms control principles of artificial intelligence weapons, the development and control of the militarized application of cutting-edge technologies, and the research and deployment of space military forces.

The China-U.S. defense ministers' meeting is expected to be "relatively frank and constructive," said Zhu.

What is the significance of the Shangri-La Dialogue?

Named for the Singapore hotel where it takes place and organized by the British think tank, the International Institute for Strategic Studies, the Shangri-La Dialogue is a key security meeting in the Asia Pacific region.

It enables decision-makers from across the Asia-Pacific, even Europe and the Middle East, to gather to discuss the most pressing regional security issues and share policy responses.

Noting that Dong will deliver a speech on China's global security concept at the Shangri-La Dialogue, Yan said the Chinese minister will systematically outline the concept.

"The summit will help maintain peace in the Asia-Pacific region, prevent the spread of regional crises, avoid miscalculation by major powers while at the same time to play a certain role in pacifying other countries in the region," said Yan.

During the summit, China will also focus on reaffirming its stance on hot spot regional issues, such as the Taiwan question, the Philippines' provocative actions in the South China Sea and the threatening behavior of the U.S. to increase its military deployment in the northern Philippines, according to Yan.

He believes that against the backdrop of the escalating situation in the Asia-Pacific region, the prominent significance of the summit is that China and the U.S. can maintain a prudent stance, adhere to regular, continuous and frank communication, and work together to prevent unforeseen circumstances from occurring.

(Cover: A Chinese coast guard warship carries out law enforcement patrols in the waters near Kinmen, southeast China's Fujian Province, February 25, 2024. /CFP)