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Trump found guilty: Can he stand for election and what happens next?

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures as he exits the courtroom at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City, May 30, 2024. /CFP
Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures as he exits the courtroom at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City, May 30, 2024. /CFP

Former U.S. President and Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump gestures as he exits the courtroom at Manhattan Criminal Court in New York City, May 30, 2024. /CFP

A jury in New York on Thursday unanimously found Donald Trump guilty of falsifying documents to cover up a hush money payment to an adult film star in the closing stages of the 2016 presidential election.

The 77-year-old Republican is the first U.S. president to be convicted of a crime and the first person convicted of a crime to be the presumptive presidential nominee for a major U.S. party.

What was Trump found guilty of?

The 12-member jury found Trump guilty on all 34 felony counts he faced after two days of deliberation.

The five-week trial centered around whether Trump falsified business records to cover up a $130,000 payment made via his then-lawyer, Michael Cohen, to Stormy Daniels, an adult film star who says she had sex with Trump in 2006 while he was married to his current wife, Melania.

Cohen testified that he handled the payment and that Trump approved a plan to reimburse him through monthly payments disguised as legal work.

Trump denies the affair took place and insists he is not guilty of the charges. He called the verdict a "disgrace" and insisted that the trial had been rigged against him.

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What punishment could Trump face?

Trump will be sentenced on July 11, days before the Republican convention at which he is expected to be confirmed as the party's presidential candidate.

Falsifying business records, the crimes Trump has been found guilty of, are class E felonies, the least serious, in New York. The sentence will be decided by Juan Merchan, the judge overseeing the case, and could run to up to four years in jail, but any time behind bars is unlikely.

Trump is a first-time offender in his late 70s, the crimes he committed weren't violent, the logistics of putting a former president in jail are complicated, and the judge has previously indicated that he's very aware of the political implications of incarcerating Trump.

Punishments involving fines, probation and community service are considered most likely by legal experts, though home confinement or a form of curfew are possibilities.

Can he still run for the White House?

The guilty verdict could have a myriad of implications for the presidential election on November 5, but it won't stop Trump running for a return to the White House.

There's nothing in the U.S. Constitution barring someone with a criminal conviction from standing for the presidency. In fact, even if he were to be sent to jail he could in theory both continue his campaign and serve as president. In practice, such a situation is untested and would likely be untenable so a legal workaround would be sought. 

"The Constitution has very few requirements to serve as president, such as being at least 35 years of age. It does not bar anyone indicted, or convicted, or even serving jail time, from running for president and winning the presidency," University of California, Los Angeles law professor Richard L. Hasen – a leading expert on election law, told CNN.

He will not be able to pardon himself if he is elected in November, however, because the hush money case is a state issue and presidents only hold pardon power for federal crimes.

Will the verdict impact the election?

No one knows how the conviction will impact this year's contest between Trump and Democratic President Joe Biden.

Opinion polls indicate the men are locked in a tight race, with Trump marginally ahead in several battleground states. Polling from companies including Ipsos, Morning Consult and Quinnipiac does suggest Trump could lose some support among independent and Republican voters as a result of the verdict.

Trump, who has repeatedly sought donations off the back of the case, is expected to get a major fundraising boost from the verdict. The payment processor for Republican campaign donations crashed in the wake of the verdict, which his campaign attributed to the large volume of donations.

What happens next?

Trump is a free man pending sentencing, which is scheduled for July 11. 

He is almost certain to appeal the verdict, and whatever punishment is given may be delayed, but nevertheless the former president now enters the criminal justice system. 

Trump could appeal on the grounds that he wasn't given a fair trial, and that the charges were improper. He has 30 days to file a notice of appeal, and six months to file a full appeal. If the conviction were upheld, Trump could then appeal to the New York court of appeals, and if upheld again to the Supreme Court. 

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