Editor's note: Dong Yifan, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a research fellow with the Institute of European Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

From June 6 to 9, the European Union's 27 member states faced a quadrennial test in the European Parliament elections, marking a reshuffling of the European political landscape. The results reflect the continuation of Europe's trend towards fragmentation and diversity. Yet this fragmentation also exhibits new characteristics, injecting more uncertainty into the direction of European politics and changes in the EU power structure.

This is the first formal election after the UK's official Brexit, with the number of seats fixed at 720 after the fluctuations caused by the UK's departure. The EU has experienced a series of crises and changes between the two election terms including Brexit, the COVID-19 pandemic, and the Ukraine crisis, leading to significant changes in both the campaign agenda and the competition and cooperation among parties. Fundamentally, the election results largely continue the trend of "rightward shift, leftward retreat" and the rise of extreme populist forces in European politics over the past decade or so. Right-wing parties generally gained ground, with the center-right European People's Party, the far-right Identity and Democracy group, and the European Conservatives and Reformists group winning 184, 73, and 58 seats respectively, an increase of eight, four, and nine seats. However, the far-right parties did not achieve an explosive growth, nor did they replace the centrist group Renew Europe as the third-largest group in the European Parliament.

Traditional left-wing forces and centrist groups, on the other hand, generally declined. The Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats maintained its 139 seats, along with Renew Europe, the Greens–European Free Alliance, and the Left in the European Parliament which won 79, 53, and 36 seats respectively, a decrease of 29, 18, and one seat. The rising trend led by centrist forces and the Greens in 2019 has since showed signs of receding.

Therefore, the already diverse and complex composition of the European Parliament will further exacerbate its trend towards internal dispersion and fragmentation, revealing more new characteristics.

Firstly, the rift between traditional political forces has widened. The formation of the "super grand coalition" in 2019 comprising the European People's Party, the Socialists and Democrats, and Renew Europe was a result of mutual compromise. At the same time, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen had to strengthen green policies to align with the rising trend of the Greens at that time.

Currently, as the three pro-European parliamentary groups experience an overall decline in strength, policy disagreements between groups are widening in areas such as economy, environment, foreign affairs and immigration. Von der Leyen herself, seeking re-election, faces more controversy.

Although the European People's Party has expanded its influence to some extent, Von der Leyen, in her bid for re-election, is even willing to break taboos to garner support, including seeking cooperation with European far-right parties like Italy's Brothers of Italy. This approach has sparked dissatisfaction among traditional allies such as the Socialists and Democrats, leading to greater uncertainty in the future cooperation within the EU.

Moreover, extreme right-wing parties and non-traditional parties face challenges of fragmentation and obstruction. Although extreme right-wing parties and their two major groups have further increased their strength in this election, their rate of ascent has been slower compared to the previous European Parliament elections and national elections in various countries. This is due to significant variations in the political environments of different countries. For instance, the National Rally in France achieved a vote share as high as 31.5 percent, gaining 12 seats, while Poland's Law and Justice Party and Italy's Lega per Salvini Premier lost five and 14 seats, respectively.

Faced with the momentum of the rise of far-right parties, established forces in various countries often employ political and legal means to suppress them. For example, Germany launched a multi-faceted attack on the Alternative for Germany through public opinion and legal means. In the Netherlands, the Labor Party and the Greens formed an electoral alliance to cooperate in preventing the Freedom Party from winning the top spot.

Additionally, there is internal fragmentation within far-right forces. For instance, the Alternative for Germany was expelled from the Identity and Democracy group due to controversial remarks, and the National Rally also announced a split from the Alternative for Germany. Moreover, the Conservative and Reformist group and the Identity and Democracy group have struggled to reach consensus on issues such as aid to Ukraine and transatlantic relations.

Furthermore, there are more "X" factors. With internal divisions widening between traditional and non-traditional parties in EU countries, some parties that have performed strongly domestically now find themselves unable to form parliamentary groups, becoming an unknown-yet-influential force in the new parliament.

For example, Alternative for Germany and Hungarian Civic Alliance ­– respectively the second and first largest parties in Germany and Hungary ­– gained 15 and 11 seats. These parties currently seem unlikely to join any parliamentary group, but they will wield significant yet uncertain influence in the future operations of the European Parliament and the selection of key figures in EU institutions.

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