An extreme weather phenomenon known as the dzud has killed more than 7.1 million animals in Mongolia this year, more than a tenth of the country's entire livestock holdings, endangering herders' livelihoods and way of life.
A dog howling next to dead sheep and goats amid extremely cold weather conditions in Bayanmunkh, Khentii Province, Mongolia, February 22, 2024. /CFP
Dzuds are a harsh combination of perennial droughts and severe, snowy winters and are becoming increasingly harsher and more frequent due to climate change. They are primarily associated with Mongolia but also occur in other parts of Central Asia.
Many deaths, especially among malnourished female animals and their young, occur during the spring, which is the critical birthing season.
Herding is fundamental to Mongolia's economy and culture – contributing to a significant 80 percent of its agricultural production and 11 percent of GDP.
In Mongolian, the word 'dzud' means disaster. Dzuds occur when excessively heavy snows cause impenetrable layers of snow and ice that cover Mongolia’s vast grasslands, so the animals cannot graze and multinational starve to death. Intermittent drought at other times of the year means there’s not enough forage for the animals to build up reserves for the winter.
Dzuds used to occur once every decade or so but are now becoming harsher and more frequent because of climate change. This year's dzud is the sixth in the past decade and the worst yet. It followed a dzud last year and a dry summer. Snowfall was the heaviest since 1975.
The toll on Mongolia's herds has soared, with 2.1 million head of cattle, sheep and goats dead in February, rising to 7.1 million in May, according to state media.
Thousands of families have lost over 70 percent of their entire herds. And the total death toll may increase to 14.9 million animals, or nearly 24 percent of Mongolia’s total herd, said Deputy Prime Minister S. Amarsaikhan, according to state media.
Nomadic herding is so vital for resource-rich Mongolia's 3.3 million people that its constitution refers to the country's 65 million camels, yaks, cattle, sheep, goats and horses as its "national wealth."
Livestock and their products are Mongolia's second-largest export after mining, according to the Asian Development Bank.
"The loss of the livestock has dealt an irreversible blow to economic stability and intensified the people's already dire circumstances," Olga Dzhumaeva, the head of the East Asia delegation at International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent or IFRC, said in an interview.
A Mongolian herdsman stands near his livestock in Ulaangom Soum, Uvs province, Mongolia, March 1, 2024. /CFP
High costs for fuel, food and fodder made the situation much worse for herders like Gantomor, a 38-year-old herder in mountainous Arkhangai province. Like many Mongolians, he goes by one name.
Warnings of a dzud prompted Gantomor to sell his entire flock of about 400 sheep. He only kept his sturdier yaks and horses, hoping that that he'd be able to take them to pastures that wouldn't be as badly affected, said his sister-in-law, Gantuya Batdelger, 33, a graduate school student.
Even after spending more than $2,000 to transport the remaining 200-odd animals 200 kilometers to a place he thought would be safer, he didn't escape the dzud. Seventy yaks died and 40 horses left the herd, leaving him with less than 100. "By selling the sheep, (the family) had wanted to save some money. But they spent all of it," said Batdelger.
Batdelger's brother-in-law was better off than others. A friend had all but 15 of her 250 yaks die.
The Mongolian countryside was filled with hundreds of carcasses, piling up in the melting snow, she said.
Disposing of the carcasses quickly to ensure they don't spread diseases is another big challenge. By early May, 5.6 million, or nearly 80 percent, of the dead animals had been buried.
Warmer temperatures can lead to forest fires or dust storms. Heavy runoff from melting snow heightens the risk of flash floods, especially in urban areas. Many pregnant animals, weakened from the winter, lose their offspring, sometimes because they cannot adequately feed them, said Matilda Dimovska, the UNDP's resident representative in Mongolia.
"It's really devastating to see, how (the baby animals) cry for food," she said.
The dzud is a perfect example of how interlinked climate change is with poverty and the economy, she said. Herders who lose their herds often migrate to cities like the capital, Ulaanbaatar, but find few opportunities for work.
"They enter into the cycle of poverty," she said.
The increasingly common nature of the dzuds has raised the need for Mongolia to develop better early warning systems for natural disasters, said Mungunkhishig Batbaatar, the country director of the nonprofit People in Need.
Combining technology with community-level approaches works best: "It is estimated that countries with limited early warning coverage have disaster mortality that is eight times higher than countries with substantial to comprehensive coverage," he said.
Meanwhile, international aid has been "very insufficient," said Dzhumaeva. An IFRC appeal launched in mid-March has not reached even 20 percent of its target of 5.5 million Swiss Francs ($6 million). Budgets strained by urgent responses to crises like Ukraine or Gaza are a factor, she said, "But this leaves little room for addressing the devastating effects of dzud in Mongolia."
Mongolia needs help but it also needs to adapt to dzuds with strategies such as better weather forecasting and measures to stop overgrazing. Herders need to diversify their incomes to help cushion the impact of livestock losses.