The hope for stability and prosperity in China-Australia relations

Editor's note: Timothy Kerswell, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is professor of political science at the School of Liberal Arts of Bennett University in India. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

Chinese Premier Li Qiang's visit to Australia marks a recent high point in relations now widely seen to have stabilized. The visit underlines the importance of the China-Australia relationship and with the goal of stabilization achieved, current diplomatic efforts will be focused on ways the relationship could be improved including by anticipating and addressing upcoming risks. It underlines that the national interests of both countries are bound up with the well-being of their citizens, meaning economic priorities will take centerstage.

Premier Li's trip also comes at a time when Australia's public trust in the United States has declined substantially, with a recent Lowy Institute poll showing that only 56 percent of Australians trust the U.S. to act responsibly compared to 61 percent in the last year. This is a hopeful sign that the Australian public are understanding the reality of a multipolar world, and accordingly, the need for an independent foreign policy of which a working relationship with China must be an important part.

Australia's economy remains inextricably linked to the Chinese economy, with China accounting for almost a third of all Australian exports in 2023 and Chinese goods accounting for over a quarter of Australia's imports. To stress the importance of the relationship, Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese remarked this year that "one in four of Australian jobs relies upon trade, and one in four of Australian export dollars is from trade to China."

Australia has been in "per capita" recession since 2023. In other words, while its economy is still growing, its population is growing faster than the economy. The current national economic conversation is one of the cost-of-living crisis, with ordinary Australians exposed to high food, housing and utility bills in a way that is significantly impacting everyday life in Australia.

Australia will be hoping that an improvement in the relationship with China leads to some tangible economic benefits to help arrest this trend. The current trade impediments impacting Australian rock lobsters are symbolically significant as one of the last sources of friction between the two economies, but their potential removal will not change the economic big picture very much. The real work for both parties will be to find ways to deepen a historically successful trading relationship, devising new ways to cooperate.

The potential for new areas of cooperation can be seen in recent collaborations leading to the growth of electric vehicle (EV) usage in Australia. China is the world leader in EV technology, and manufacturing which is highly complementary to Australia's status as the world's biggest source of lithium. With both countries committed to a policy agenda of decarbonization, it is unsurprising that part of Premier Li's visit includes a visit to the mining-focused state of Western Australia.

Also important will be the Chinese premier's meeting with Australia's opposition leader, Peter Dutton. While the China-Australia relationship has stabilized, it remains to be seen whether the relationship between Australia's Liberal Party and China has undergone a similar transformation. Australia's relationship with China declined to one of its lowest points under the previous Liberal government (2013-2022), particularly in the period 2017-2021, when Dutton was home minister. This was a period when escalating rhetoric and policy hostility became the norm. It would be nice to believe that this low period in relations is a thing of the past.

The problem is that in most Australian opinion polls from August 2023 the primary vote share for Dutton's Liberal Party has been consistently higher than Albanese's Australian Labor Party, a trend that has been worsening on average for the Labor Party over time. With Australia due to have a federal election in or before September 2025, it raises the possibility that the next time a key Chinese government official visits Australia, they might find a different prime minister waiting for them along with a changed political scenario.

People from Australia and China both hold out the hope that the stabilization of relations that has taken place from 2022 until now would not be erased by a change of government. If Dutton and the Liberal Party remain in opposition even after 2025, they have a lot of responsibility to ensure that China is not used as a way of earning cheap political points, but to elevate Australian political discourse in a way that is helpful to improving China-Australia relations.

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