Foreign capital optimistic on China's economic prospects

As 2024 reaches its midpoint, the Chinese economy continues to demonstrate robust growth potential. Recently, several international organizations and foreign institutions have released reports raising their expectations for China's GDP growth this year, expressing optimism about the country's economic prospects.

"China's economic growth is projected to remain resilient at 5 percent in 2024 and slow to 4.5 percent in 2025. These reflect upward revisions of 0.4 percentage point for both years compared to the April WEO projections," stated Gita Gopinath, IMF's first deputy managing director, during her visit to Beijing on May 29. She attributed the IMF's upgraded forecast to China's strong GDP growth in the first quarter and recent policy measures.

Similarly, the World Bank's latest "Global Economic Prospects" report has also raised its forecast for China's economic growth in 2024 to 4.8 percent, up 0.3 percentage point from its December 2023 prediction. The World Bank cited stronger-than-expected exports and the impact of government real estate support policies and increased fiscal spending as reasons for the revision.

Data from the General Administration of Customs of China further supports these optimistic projections. In May 2024, China's exports increased by 7.6 percent year on year in U.S. dollar terms, marking a significant rise of 6.1 percentage points from April. The trade surplus for the month reached $82.62 billion, indicating robust export performance.

Beyond prominent international organizations like the World Bank and the IMF, other major financial institutions also adjusted their growth expectations for China upward since April.

UBS forecasts a year-on-year GDP growth rate of around 5.3 percent for the second quarter and an annual growth rate of 4.9 percent. Deutsche Bank has raised its 2024 GDP growth forecast for China by 0.5 percentage point to 5.2 percent, while Morgan Stanley has increased its forecast from 4.2 percent to 4.8 percent.

The latest economic data from the National Bureau of Statistics, released on June 17, reinforces the forecasts made by these foreign institutions. In May, China's total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 3.7 percent year on year, the added value of industrial enterprises above a designated size rose by 5.6 percent, and the total import and export of goods grew by 8.6 percent.

In light of these positive economic developments, foreign institutions are ramping up their investments in China. Audi has commenced pre-mass production at its first pure electric vehicle production base in China. Mercedes-Benz and BMW have established a joint venture to operate a supercharging network in the Chinese market. Zeiss has completed its largest quality excellence center in Dongguan, and PepsiCo has begun construction on a food production base in Shaanxi with an investment of 1.3 billion yuan ($179 million).

At the recently concluded 15th Annual Meeting of the New Champions in Dalian, McKinsey China Chairman Joe Ngai emphasized China's competitiveness, stating, "China is definitely the most competitive environment anywhere globally." He believed if multinational companies can succeed in the Chinese market, they can succeed anywhere in the world.

(Cover via CFP)