President Emmanuel Macron shocked France when he called a snap parliamentary election in the immediate aftermath of a strong performance by the far-right National Rally (RN) in elections to the European Parliament in early June.
Macron will remain in post no matter what the result of the National Assembly vote, the first round of which will be held on Sunday, just weeks before the Paris 2024 Olympic Games begins, but polls suggest the president is likely to face an extremely challenging parliamentary landscape.
French President Emmanuel Macron at the French Foreign Ministry, at the Quai d'Orsay, in Paris, on June 20, 2024. /CFP
Polling currently gives the far-right RN bloc a lead, puts the New Popular Front (NFP) left-wing alliance in second place and Macron's Ensemble centrist alliance in third. The numbers suggest a far-right government or a hung parliament are strong possibilities, which could leave Macron in a "cohabitation" with a prime minister from another party or produce a lower house without a stable majority.
Some commentators fear social and economic instability could follow. And the consequences of the president's election gamble could have ramifications beyond France, given the country is a big player in organizations, like the European Union and NATO, that both the left and right extremes are suspicious of.
Why is there an election?
National Assembly elections were last held in June 2022 and the next vote wasn't due until 2027, but Macron insisted after RN scored 31.4 percent of the vote to his own Renew alliance's 14.6 percent that snap polls for the lower house of parliament were necessary.
He had failed to secure an absolute majority (at least 289) in the 577-seat National Assembly in the 2022 elections, and has struggled to force through new laws, having to rely on a mix of controversial measures and deals with other parties.
National Rally President Jordan Bardella during a photo session before an interview on FRANCE 3, Paris, France, June 16, 2024. /CFP
Some observers have put Macron's election call down to a belief that France would return to the center when faced with the alternative of a government on the extremes, others to a willingness to expose RN to the scrutiny of being in office ahead of the 2027 presidential election (in which Macron is term-limited out from running).
However, Brice Teinturier, deputy director of Ipsos, told the Le Monde newspaper that the snap election "wasn't going to turn around the major trends," adding that the "RN bloc is incredibly powerful.”
Turnout is likely to have also been a factor in Macron's decision. It was just 51 percent for the European Parliament elections, higher than the 47.5 percent in the 2022 National Assembly elections, but given the dramatic circumstances there is a reasonable expectation that it will be driven higher in the upcoming polls, which could work against RN. Polling by Ipsos for Le Monde indicates turnout well above 60 percent is possible.
Who are the main players?
The far-right RN, far-left alliance NFP and centrist Ensemble are the main groupings in the election.
RN, fronted by party president Jordan Bardella, won 88 seats in the 2022 elections, but polls suggest it could win many more this time – possibly enough for Bardella, aged 28, to be France's next prime minister.
The party's leader in parliament and the power behind it is the veteran Marine Le Pen, a three-time presidential candidate who is likely to stand again in 2027.
In the European Parliament elections, RN won 31.37 percent of the vote and the other far-right party Reconquête won 5.47 percent. The latest poll by Ipsos puts the far-right on 36 percent.
(From L) National Rally President Jordan Bardella, France's Prime Minister Gabriel Attal and La France Insoumise MP Manuel Bompard pose prior to a debate on TF1, in Boulogne-Billancourt, outside Paris, June 25, 2024. /CFP
Not far behind RN in the polls is a left-wing alliance, the NFP, fronted by figures including La France Insoumise MP Manuel Bompard and Socialist Party leader Olivier Faure. The combined left-wing vote was above 30 percent in the European elections and stands at 29 percent in the Ipsos poll.
And ranking third with two days to go until the first round is Macron's Ensemble alliance, represented in TV debates by Prime Minister Gabriel Attal.
Macron is hopeful that voters will ultimately unite in opposition to the far-right, and though the picture is gloomy for his grouping, the Ipsos polling puts it on 20 percent, more than five percentage points higher than in the European Parliament elections.
How does the election work?
The French National Assembly elections are two-round affairs.
In the first round, on June 30, all candidates who fail to win the support of 12.5 percent of voters in their district are eliminated. Anyone who scores 50 percent of the vote with a turnout of at least a quarter of the electorate wins outright.
Any candidate who makes the cut but doesn't get an absolute majority will qualify for a second round on July 7, in which the contender with the most votes wins a seat, though some who qualify may make a deal to step aside before the second round.
However, the first round results won't necessarily provide a clear picture as to what will happen in round two, as tactical voting – Macron will hope in opposition to RN – is likely to be far more evident when the candidates in each district are whittled down to just two or three, and voters are given a starker choice.