People cast their ballots at a polling station in Clichy-La-Garenne, near Paris, France, July 7, 2024. /Xinhua
Editor's note: Adriel Kasonta, a special commentator for CGTN, is a London-based foreign affairs analyst and commentator. He is the founder of AK Consultancy and former chairman of the International Affairs Committee at Bow Group, the oldest conservative think tank in the UK. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
In a stunning turn of events, French President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Renaissance alliance has been dealt a significant blow, not just by the far-right National Rally led by Marine Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, but also by a formidable left-wing coalition.
The results of the European elections on June 9 were a harbinger of seismic shifts, leading to snap elections that have dramatically redefined France's political landscape. Although the National Rally fell short of a majority, the rise of its popularity marks a permanent transformation in French politics.
On June 30, French voters turned out in record numbers for the first round of elections, with participation hitting a high of 67 percent – the highest since 1997. The results were staggering: The National Rally and its allies claimed 33 percent of the vote, dwarfing Macron's alliance, which secured only 20 percent, relegating it to third place. The left-wing New Popular Front captured 28 percent, highlighting a deep polarization within the electorate.
The backdrop to Macron's decision to call for snap elections was a climate of discontent and restlessness. Despite winning a second term in 2022, Macron's inability to secure an outright majority in the National Assembly left his government in a precarious position. The writing was on the wall: "Macronism is dead," a sentiment echoed by political insiders and reflected in his plummeting approval ratings, which hit historic lows by late June.
These elections, like the European Parliament polls before them, became a platform for French citizens to voice their frustration with the current administration. National issues, particularly the cost of living, inequality, and inflation, dominated voter concerns, with a Financial Times/Ipsos poll underscoring the economic anxiety driving the electorate. Additionally, a significant segment of voters expressed unease over immigration and cultural changes, feeling increasingly alienated in their own country.
The critical question these elections posed was whether France, renowned for its revolutionary spirit, would embrace a radical shift away from the status quo. With 577 seats up for grabs in the National Assembly, a party needs 289 for an absolute majority. Macron's alliance, with only 250 seats previously, had constantly relied on other parties for legislative support.
French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte Macron arrive at a polling station in Le Touquet, northern France, July 7, 2024. /Xinhua
To counter the National Rally's momentum, mainstream political forces rallied together, invoking the "Republican front" strategy – an all-hands-on-deck approach to block Le Pen's party. French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal declared that 90 percent of Macron's centrist candidates withdrew from three-way races if they trailed a National Rally candidate, aiming to consolidate votes against the far right.
"What's at stake is to do everything so that the extreme right does not have an absolute majority. It is not nice for some French to have to block … by voting in a way they did not want to. I say it's our responsibility to do this," Attal concluded.
The second round of elections saw an impressive turnout, maintaining the high engagement from the first round. The "Republican front" held, preventing the National Rally from achieving a majority. Yet, the results were nonetheless a testament to the party's growing influence. The New Popular Front emerged as the largest bloc, securing between 172 and 192 seats, according to Ipsos estimates, while the National Rally claimed a significant increase in its share of seats.
While mainstream commentators and political elites celebrate this as a victory against extremism, the reality is more nuanced. The National Rally's gains cannot be ignored or dismissed as a temporary aberration. The party's ascent is a clear signal from the French populace: They are disillusioned with the current political order and demand change.
The challenge now lies with the Parisian political elite. They must heed the electorate's message and adapt accordingly. Failure to do so will only fortify the National Rally's position, potentially leading to an even more dramatic shift in future elections. The "dam" that held back the far right this time is under immense pressure, and it is uncertain whether it can withstand future political storms.
The rise of Marine Le Pen's National Rally is not merely a reflection of a party gaining seats; it is a manifestation of deep-seated grievances and a call for radical change. The political landscape of France has been irrevocably altered, and the days of business as usual are over. The coming years will test whether the establishment can reform and address the underlying issues or if Le Pen's party will eventually break through, transforming French politics in ways that were once unimaginable.
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