What's next for France? No clear winner as RN squeezed, vote splits

The old aphorism that "a week is a long time in politics" appears to be ringing painfully true for France's far-right party, National Rally (RN).

A week ago, the party's leadership and supporters were celebrating a strong showing in the first round of National Assembly elections on June 30, comfortably leading the vote share and with dreams of a first RN prime minister looking just about attainable.

Seven days later, French voters have pushed RN into third place in the second round, leaving them no chance of making the government. 

The left-wing grouping, the New Popular Front (NFP), caused a fresh shock by winning the most seats in the lower house of the parliament, closely followed by President Emmanuel Macron's Ensemble alliance.

The NFP alliance, formed only weeks ago by the main left-wing parties, won 182 seats in the 577-seat parliament, according to final results published by the interior ministry. Macron's centrist grouping, Ensemble, took 168 and the far-right RN and its allies gained 143.

The result leaves France with three blocs of similar sizes in a hung parliament, all short of the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority, and a lengthy period of deadlock and negotiation likely lies ahead.

Left-wing shock

The NFP is a left-wing alliance of Socialists, Greens, Communists and France Unbowed that came together last month to oppose the far-right. However, they have wide policy differences and haven't yet been able to put forward a candidate for prime minister, making negotiations to form a functional government all the more complex.

The loudest voice in the coalition is veteran Jean-Luc Melenchon, leader of France Unbowed, which looks to be the party that has won the most seats within the NFP alliance. Francois Hollande, the former Socialist president who has a somewhat complicated history with Macron, also returned to elected politics and will sit in the National Assembly.

For RN, the result will come as a disappointment given the height of expectations reached after the party's success in the elections to the European Parliament and the first round of the National Assembly polls, but it has still jumped from 88 seats in the lower house to 143, a big increase and a sign of its continuing momentum.

"The tide is rising, our victory has only been delayed," RN leader Marine Le Pen said. Jordan Bardella, the 28-year-old who hoped to be prime minister, said an "alliance of dishonor" had thwarted his party.

Over 200 candidates who qualified for the second round, largely from NFP and Ensemble, dropped out to ensure two-horse races and effectively create referendums on RN. 

Turnout in the election was the highest in four decades, at over 59 percent. 

Exactly what outcome Macron hoped for when he called the snap election in the immediate aftermath of RN's dominance of the European elections in early June has never been entirely clear.

The result isn't going to make his presidency any simpler, but his bloc has performed better than expected and will have leverage in the new parliament. And his gamble that a majority of voters would unite to stymie the rise of RN has proved accurate – the election has made clear that a majority of French voters still oppose the far-right.

What happens next?

What comes next is far from certain, but with the Olympic Games due to open in Paris in less than three weeks, there will be a hope that calm voices can prevail. 

Prime Minister Gabriel Attal announced on Sunday night that he would offer his resignation in the wake of the results, but added that he was prepared to stay on "for as long as duty demands." It's possible that he continues as a caretaker prime minister, at least beyond the Olympics.

Former Prime Minister Edouard Philippe has suggested a centrist solution, perhaps built around a very basic legislative agenda, while Melenchon has said the NFP must be given the chance to form a new government. A technocratic government made up of experts has also been floated.

Whatever eventually happens, a long period of negotiations lies ahead.