What the Washington NATO Summit spells for the future

Editor's note: Bradley Blankenship, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a Prague-based American journalist, political analyst, and freelance reporter. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

The Washington NATO Summit, which celebrated the alliance's 75th year, just concluded on July 11. Some important developments came out as the U.S. and its allies tried to form enduring commitments to Ukraine and make the world's largest military organization "Trump-proof" as U.S. President Joe Biden's political prospects for the upcoming 2024 presidential election waned.

After a poor performance at the first head-to-head debate against his rival, Donald Trump, President Joe Biden faces increasing calls from within his own party to step down as the Democratic Party's nominee for president. The 81-year-old has done little to quash these concerns, and he has since plummeted in the most recent polls, indicating that, at the very least, his continuing operation in the race would usher in a second Trump administration. 

Biden's latest solo press conference at the NATO Summit, his first in this format in eight months, has apparently done little to sway American voters even if some European leaders have endorsed his fitness as a leader. It remains to be seen if the Democratic Party, the one most committed to maintaining Washington's global hegemony, could field a promising candidate before November.

European leaders are not taking any chances, apparently. As the Washington Post reported, NATO policymakers have taken key steps to move significant parts of military aid to Ukraine away from U.S. command and to the NATO umbrella. Mark Rutte, the outgoing prime minister of the Netherlands, was appointed as the alliance's new secretary general and is expected to navigate the tumultuous reality of a likely second term for former President and Republican nominee Donald Trump. As well, the alliance signed longer-term defense deals with Ukraine, some for decades, in an effort to insulate military aid from politics, and upping national defense spending. 

More autonomy being given to Europe, and Washington taking less of a leadership role, is a greater indication of the declining role of the United States in global affairs commensurate to its withering soft and hard power. 

These efforts by European leaders also follow domestic efforts in the U.S. to insulate Trump's effects from the world stage. Congress passed a legislation at the end of last year that will bind Washington to NATO, barring a two-thirds vote in the Senate – which would be extraordinarily unlikely.

Ukraine has also received an "irreversible" pathway to joining the alliance in addition to the hitherto mentioned policies. The document also mentioned China by name, calling out its alleged support for Russia's efforts in Ukraine and supposedly coercive policies that threaten NATO's interests. On this note, NATO plans to make inroads with its Asia-Pacific partners, namely Japan, South Korea, Australia, and New Zealand to shore up support in that region.

On July 10, as CNN reported, the alliance announced a new Integrated Cyber Defense Centre meant to ward off "hacking threats against the alliance." The U.S. also transferred F-16 jets to Ukraine, a long sought-after piece of equipment thought to open up the battlefield for Kyiv's forces. Germany and the U.S. also announced a round of long-range missiles to Kyiv. Each of these developments raises the potential for miscalculations and escalation between NATO and Russia, opening up the door for a full-scale European war not seen in some eight decades.

The substantial rise in military spending amongst NATO members, and commitments to Ukraine, will generally raise the overall tension on the continent and limit the possibility for de-escalation. It will, however, not address the underlying issues that have made the ongoing Ukraine conflict a reality to begin with. Without a European security architecture that validates, addresses and takes all relevant parties' concerns into account, the ongoing hybrid conflict between East and West will only continue.

Efforts to "Trump-proof" NATO and its accompanying policies merely shift the control center out of Washington, thus indicating the United States' waning leadership role in the West, but do not extricate this power from Western hegemony and facilitate the emergence of a common human community based on mutual respect and harmony. It is inevitable that the political currents that have made Trump such a potent force will rear their heads once again in due time, forcing the alliance to reconcile its fate in the future while kicking the can down the road today. 

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com. Follow @thouse_opinions on X, formerly Twitter, to discover the latest commentaries in the CGTN Opinion Section.)