Whys and Wherefores of China's Third Plenum

I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn and here's what I'm watching: The third plenary session of the 20th Communist Party of China (CPC) Central Committee. Why is this Third Plenum so important? Because it will deliberate the vision, principles, and policies, set by President Xi Jinping, that aim to realize China's great rejuvenation by 2049, when the People's Republic of China will celebrate its 100th anniversary. While third plenums, which set economic policy, are usually considered the most meaningful of the plenum cycles, this 2024 Third Plenum is especially meaningful in that it will confirm China's overarching politico-economic vision and establish guiding economic principles for the foreseeable future as well as formulate initial operational policies.

To envision this Third Plenum of the 20th CPC Central Committee in 2024 is to see it in historical context of the Third Plenum of the 18th CPC Central Committee in 2013, which sought to comprehensively deepen reform in some 60 areas with 336 major measures. China highlights achievements since the 2013 Third Plenum in two areas: building a greener environment and providing a better social safety net for citizens.

I remember Beijing around 2013 as so heavily polluted with thick smog that one could barely see across the street. But in the ten years from 2013 to 2023, there has been an increase of 95 days of blue skies annually. It is said the then temporary "APEC blue" has been transformed into lasting Beijing Blue.

Progress in China's social security system can be measured by coverage. In 2004, China's basic medical insurance covered only 204 million people or 15.70% of the population. 20 years on, the number has grown to 1.334 billion people, or 94.6% of the population. In terms of people covered, China has the world's largest social security and medical care system. Quality of care is obviously critical, and China is working to improve and standardize care.

Of course, there is more to do. In his report to the 20th CPC National Congress, General Secretary Xi Jinping targeted the "still many tough issues to be addressed in the reform of key areas," including: still wide gaps in development and income distribution between urban and rural areas and between regions; plus the many difficulties in employment, education, medical services, childcare, elderly care, housing, and ecological conservation and environmental protection. Some Chinese economists call for improving market efficiency for production factors or resources; overcoming challenges to a unified national market; and improving the confidence of private entrepreneurs. Here is strong motivation, in part, for 2024's Third Plenum. I expect this upcoming Third Plenum to proclaim an even larger mission and scope.

To understand China's next stage of comprehensive and economic reform, one must begin with President Xi's thinking regarding "new quality productive forces," China's new guiding phrase, and understand how it fits within the nested concepts that frame China's economic vision and future. This is how it goes. China's grand goal is the "great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation," which is achieved by advancing "Chinese modernization." Chinese modernization is energized by "high-quality development." High-quality development is powered by "new quality productive forces."  And "new quality productive forces" is driven by "indigenous innovation," especially in science and technology.

"New quality productive forces" now headlines economic directives at central and local governments as China pivots to a growth model that prizes quality over quantity, and it stresses scientific innovation to drive economic transformation, the re-invigoration of current industries, the accelerated development of future industries, and the insulation of the country from the volatilities and vagaries of global economics and international tensions. Implementing "new quality productive forces" requires breakthroughs in science and technology, which introduce disruptive technologies, fuel emerging industries, enhance industrial chains, and expedite green transition — all empowered by intelligent information. Equally important is system reform, especially modernizing sci-tech management and removing bottlenecks.

In announcing the Third Plenum, China's Politburo stressed that advancing Chinese modernization requires law-based governance. Major reforms must be supported by law.

To foreign analysts, "reform" usually means less government and more markets. This is not what reform means in China. To President Xi, reform does not mean less state-owned enterprises and more private companies. To President Xi, reform does mean optimizing both government and markets and both state-owned enterprises and private companies. Provisions include enhancing a modern enterprise system and creating an even playing field for private companies and state-owned enterprises.

The most important takeaway from the Third Plenum may be the scope of its vision and the comprehensiveness of its policies.

I'm keeping Watch. I'm Robert Lawrence Kuhn.

Script and Presenter: Robert Lawrence Kuhn

Producer: Yang Yutong

Video Editor: Xiao Qiong

Graphic Designer: Qi Haiming

Executive Producer: Sun Lan

Chief Editor: Wang Ying

Supervisors: Xiao Jian, Adam Zhu

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com.)