China steps up short-term weather forecasting and nowcasting

The China Meteorological Administration (CMA) said on Monday that it is actively advancing its short-term weather forecasting and nowcasting capabilities, with a specific focus on severe convective weather events such as short-duration heavy rainfall, hail, thunderstorm wind gusts and tornadoes.

The initiative is part of a broader strategy to enhance early warning systems and mitigate the impact of sudden and destructive weather phenomena, said Zheng Yongguang, the chief technical officer at the National Meteorological Center's (NMC) severe weather forecasting center.

Enhanced short-term weather forecasting and nowcasting has proven crucial during extreme weather events.

Citing the short-term forecast and nowcast ahead of a severe convective weather process in Pingshan County, Sichuan Province, on April 15, the CMA said the forecast had led to the timely evacuation of people in danger, as areas of the county later experienced the strongest wind on record.

Short-term forecasts cover a period of two to 12 hours ahead of weather events, while nowcasts are for the immediate zero to two hours. Zheng said the forecasts are more accurate than longer-term predictions because they rely on real-time observational data from radars, satellites and automatic meteorological stations, combined with numerical forecasts and artificial intelligence technologies.

The CMA has developed the Short-term Weather Forecasting and Nowcasting Operational System (SWAN 3.0) that integrates multi-source observational data and applies deep learning algorithms for enhanced forecasting accuracy.

The CMA also recently introduced the AI-based near-term nowcasting system "Feng Lei," which promises to significantly improve the prediction capabilities of radar echoes within a zero to three-hour window.

Zheng said better short-term weather forecasting and nowcasting is important for China, as the country is prone to active convective systems during the warm season. The convective systems could rapidly produce severe weather events that could prove deadly and damaging.