What does geopolitical realignment in the Sahel mean for the world?

On July 6, the military leaders of Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger, who came to power in a series of coups over the last three years, met in the Nigerien capital of Niamey to formally announce the three Sahel states' coming together as one confederation. The creation of the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), as it has been named, has almost crystallized the three nations' rupture from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), from which they had earlier withdrawn their memberships.

The fact that the Niamey gathering was held just a day before the ECOWAS summit began in the Nigerian capital of Abuja was a sign of the growing distance between the two sides. ECOWAS had suspended Mali, Burkina Faso and Niger following military coups in these countries in 2021, 2022 and 2023, respectively.

Matters came to a head after the coup in Niger last year, when ECOWAS, in addition to placing sanctions, sent a week-long ultimatum to the country's military leaders to restore Mohamed Bazoum as president. The alliance had previously militarily intervened in the Gambia following a constitutional crisis in the country in 2017.

Last year, it raised the possibility of a military intervention in Niger. In response, Mali and Burkina Faso pledged to defend Niger in such an event. While military confrontation was avoided, the episode soured relations between the two sides, potentially beyond repair.

Growing resentment against the West, particularly France, has been a binding factor for the three Sahel states. All three countries expelled French troops after the coups, with the last remaining U.S. troops also set to depart Niger later this year. France's initial refusal to withdraw its ambassador at Niger's request last year was met with mass protests outside the embassy by local Nigeriens.

France and other Western countries have long faced accusations of resource exploitation and neo-colonialism in the region. At the Niamey summit earlier this month, interim Burkinabe President Ibrahim Traore told a cheering crowd, "When we take the case of Niger, for more than 40 years, some countries have been exploiting uranium to produce energy at home. From Ottawa to Paris, the streets are illuminated. It is the light. But in Niger, it is the darkness that has served us."

The shadow of France has loomed large over the region long after these countries gained independence in the previous century. France's long-lasting security and economic influence, be it through the presence of French troops or the region's use of the franc of the Financial Community of Africa (CFA) currency, half of which until 2019 was mandated to be deposited in the French Treasury as foreign reserves, has fueled increasing distrust of France within the region.

Dumping the Western CFA franc for a new common currency to be used by the 72-million-strong population has already been floated as a possibility by leaders of the AES states. The creation of a monetary union is one of the goals of the newly created confederation.

Distrust towards France and the West has been particularly exacerbated due to the worsening security situation in the region. According to the 2023 Global Terrorism Index published by the Australia-based Institute for Economics and Peace, terrorism-related deaths spiked 2,000 percent in the Sahel region in 15 years, accounting for 43 percent of global terrorism-related deaths in 2022 as compared to 1 percent in 2007. "Across the Sahel, 22,074 people were killed in 6,408 terror attacks between 2007 and 2022," the report noted.

The France-backed G5 Sahel alliance, which included Mali, Niger, Burkina Faso, Mauritania and Chad, has collapsed following the exit of the AES states. In a joint statement released by Burkina Faso and Niger last year, the two countries said that the G5 alliance was "failing to achieve its objectives" and accused it of "denying the sovereignty of our peoples" in a veiled reference to France.

Alkassoum Abdourahmane, permanent secretary of the Sahel International Solidarity Forum, told Al-Jazeera earlier this month that the people and the ruling leaders of the region blame France and the Western powers for the worsening security situation. He said locals blame NATO and its 2011 military intervention in Libya as one of the reasons behind the rise of terrorism over the past decade.

"In the mentality of the populations and the regimes here, when NATO decided, under (then-U.S. President Barack) Obama, (then-French President Nicolas) Sarkozy and (then-UK Prime Minister David) Cameron, to destabilize Libya, to send weapons to the groups, those weapons, after Libya's destabilization, went to Mali, particularly. They destabilized Mali, and they continued to become stronger to attack Burkina and these countries. So that's why I think even the populations don't think that the solution will come from those who created this problem," he said.

In his column in Premium Times, Nigerian political scientist and author Jibrin Ibrahim wrote that the 15-member ECOWAS – now at 11 members due to the departure of the AES states and the suspension of Guinea – needs to begin protracted negotiations with the countries of the Sahel with "an honest review of its own failures and successes." 

He added that while the formation of the AES has received "massive popular support" in the three countries, it will face significant challenges in its functioning. "AES is riding a popularity crest at this moment, but its fundamentals are weak, given its landlocked economies, poverty, and dependence of a significant part of its population on traveling to the coastal countries for their livelihoods. ECOWAS should take a medium-term view of its strategic options," he noted.

Bassirou Diomaye Faye, who was elected president of ECOWAS member state Senegal earlier this year, has attempted to play peacemaker since coming to power, stressing the need for all countries in the region to work together to tackle common challenges. Faye's pan-Africanist credentials make him one of the few leaders from ECOWAS states to be able to directly engage with AES leaders amid the ongoing friction. However, for the Sahel states, returning to ECOWAS has seemed like a distant possibility so far.

With the exit of French and American troops, the three Sahel states have pursued closer security ties with Russia as they continue to battle terror outfits in the region. Russia has sent troops, consisting of soldiers from the now-disbanded Wagner Group, to fight the insurgent groups in the region.

Security cooperation with Russia has proved easier to pursue for Sahel's leaders as, in contrast to the deep distrust of the West, Russia enjoys tremendous popularity in the region. This was evidenced in last year's mass protests against France in Niamey, when a large number of demonstrators waved both Russian and Nigerien flags.

Reuters reported at the time that "tailors in Niger have rushed to make Russian flags as their demand grew since President Mohamed Bazoum was ousted late last month." A demonstrator told Reuters, "I went to the demonstrations, and I was with a Russian flag. I like Russia because most African countries are with the Russians. I also think that they have a solution."

Meanwhile, China has urged the international community to boost support for the region and encouraged countries in the region to engage in dialogue to help resolve differences. "China supports regional countries in resolving their internal differences through political dialogue, so as to create conditions for peace and reconciliation," Dai Bing, China's deputy permanent representative to the United Nations, told the Security Council in January.

In light of the significant challenges facing the region, the international community should provide financial and technical support to the countries of the region in terms of infrastructure development, employment and income generation, with a view to enhancing people's livelihoods, he added.