How will Ismail Haniyeh's death influence the Middle East?

Editor's note: Wang Jin, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a research fellow at the Charhar Institute. The article reflects the author's opinion and not necessarily the views of CGTN or the Charhar Institute.

The death of Hamas Politburo chief Ismail Haniyeh in an attack in Tehran, the capital of Iran, has generated significant international concern. Due to Haniyeh's influential and sensitive political role and the fragile political and security situation in the Middle East resulting from the ongoing conflict in Gaza, this attack is likely to have a profound impact on the region's future.

Haniyeh's political importance can be understood in three ways. Firstly, Haniyeh was the leader of the Islamic Hamas movement. In recent years, due to Israel's prolonged control over the Gaza Strip, Haniyeh and other top members of the Politburo have lived abroad for extended periods, residing in countries such as Türkiye, Syria, Lebanon, Qatar, and Iran. Haniyeh's death creates a vacuum at the highest level of Hamas' hierarchy, potentially affecting the stability of its internal power structure.

Secondly, Haniyeh could be considered the de jure "prime minister of Palestine." The 2006 Palestinian Legislative Council (PLC) election was the only organized political election held in Palestine in recent years. In this election, Hamas defeated the longstanding political force, Fatah, and emerged as the dominant power within the Council.

Haniyeh, a key leader within Hamas, became prime minister and formed a cabinet. However, his authority and Hamas' victory were contested by Fatah and rejected by the West and Israel. Additionally, Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas "dismissed" Haniyeh from his position as prime minister. Although subsequent Palestinian prime ministers have been appointed directly by Abbas, and as no PLC elections have been held since 2006, Hamas remains the dominant legal political force in the Council, and Haniyeh's position as government prime minister could be partially retained.

Finally, Haniyeh was one of the key leaders of the Iranian-led "Axis of Resistance," which includes Iran, Syria, Yemen's Houthis, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Iraq's Shiite militias, and Palestinian Hamas. This coalition is a significant military and political force in the Middle East, in which Haniyeh represented an important pro-Iranian faction within Palestine, holding strong symbolic significance.

The death of Haniyeh in the attack is bound to have multiple repercussions. Although not confirmed, most Palestinian and Iranian media assert that Israel is responsible for the attack. This event is likely to disrupt the current Palestinian-Israeli peace dialogue. Israel and Hamas were engaged in indirect talks aimed at ending the conflict; but with the death of the Hamas leader, hopes for resolving the conflict are becoming increasingly remote.

On the other hand, tensions between Iran and Israel are likely to escalate significantly. The attack occurred the day after the inauguration of Iran's new President Masoud Pezeshkian who had shown support for Haniyeh during his inauguration. Haniyeh's death will inevitably provoke anger in Iran, with hardliners demanding retaliation and the broader Iranian-led Axis of Resistance calling for strong military action. Direct conflict between Iran and Israel could emerge as Al Jazeera News reported that Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said the "criminal and terrorist Zionist regime" faces "severe punishment," adding Iran considers it "a duty to avenge the blood" of the Hamas leader.

Overall, Haniyeh's death has introduced new uncertainty to the Middle East and is likely to escalate conflicts among regional actors, leading to an increasingly volatile situation. Consequently, the international community and relevant stakeholders in the Middle East should closely monitor developments and urgently establish communication channels between conflicting parties to mitigate tensions.

(If you want to contribute and have specific expertise, please contact us at opinions@cgtn.com. Follow @thouse_opinions on X, formerly Twitter, to discover the latest commentaries in the CGTN Opinion Section.)