Editor's note: Wang Jin is the director for the Center of Israel Studies at Northwest University of China. The article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
A man holds a picture of Hamas's political chief Ismail Haniyeh at a protest to condemn his killing in Tehran, Iran, July 31, 2024. /CFP
The security situation in the Middle East has deteriorated rapidly in recent weeks, and the risk of conflict has risen rapidly.
On one hand, the Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations brokered by the United States, Qatar and Egypt have reached a deadlock, and the United States has condoned Israel's launching of a number of military operations against areas under the control of pro-Iranian "axis of resistance" organizations in Iran, Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, which have resulted in the deaths of senior members of the "axis of resistance" organizations, including Hamas' political leader Ismail Haniyeh.
On the other hand, Iran, Lebanon's Hezbollah, Yemen's Houthis, Hamas and other "axis of resistance" organizations are likely to launch a coordinated large-scale attack on Israel in the coming days. A large-scale conflict in the Middle East might be imminent. In particular, the July 31 attack on the Iranian capital, Tehran, which resulted in the death of Haniyeh, has had a five-front impact on the security situation in the Middle East.
First, Hamas will likely be led internally by transitional figures. The death of politburo chief Haniyeh in the attack has disrupted the succession sequence within the group. According to the organizational structure of Hamas, when the chairman of the politburo dies, the vice-chairman should take over the leadership. However, in early 2024, Hamas' deputy chief Saleh al-Arouri was killed by an Israeli air strike in southern Lebanon, disrupting the succession sequence. Because of the Gaza war, Hamas has been unable to organize its Shura to discuss the leadership. It is therefore likely that a new leader will be selected through an ad hoc mini-conference, with possible candidates including Zahir Jabarin, who has long been in charge of Hamas' financial affairs, and Khalil Haya, who is in charge of Hamas' propaganda affairs, while former Hamas politburo chairmen, such as Khaled Mashaal and Mousa Abu Marzouk, could also temporarily assume the leadership of the politburo.
Second, peace negotiations in the Gaza Strip will likely stall. The death of Haniyeh has caused the hardliners within Hamas to grow in popularity in the short term, and the peace dialogue and negotiations with Israel will come to a standstill. Following the targeted killings of Hamas spiritual leaders Ahmed Yassin and Abdel Aziz al-Rantisi in 2004, Hamas retaliated by launching attacks against Israel in a short period of time, making 2004 one of the most intense years in the Hamas-Israel conflict. At the same time, since June 2024, Hamas has been critical of the Israeli-Hamas peace negotiations promoted by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, believing that Hamas positions and principles were not respected. Therefore, with the death of Haniyeh, the hard-line voices within Hamas are bound to dominate, and the peace talks between Israel and Hamas are bound to be suspended.
Third, the new Iranian president's promise to start a "constructive dialogue" with the United States might see obstacles. During his campaign, the reformist political figure Masoud Pezeshkian had promised to engage with the West and implied that concessions could be made in the nuclear negotiations with the United States.
Fourth, the scale and intensity of Israeli military operations in the neighborhood will likely intensify. Israel's military operations in the Gaza Strip have not yet ended, and the conflict with Hezbollah in Lebanon continues to escalate, while the conflict with the Houthis in Yemen has also intensified. The death of Haniyeh has provoked anger from Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Popular Mobilization Forces in Iraq and the Houthis in Yemen, as well as on the Gaza Strip. Israel, especially since the dissolution of the wartime cabinet in June 2024 and the formation of a security cabinet dominated by right-wing and far-right political parties, considers Iran to be the master of the "axis of resistance." The risk of a full-scale conflict in the Middle East will rapidly increase as Israel's foreign strategy becomes more aggressive.
Finally, the United States' strategic investment in the Middle East is likely to increase, and its protection and support for Israel will be enhanced. As Israel continues to launch attacks on pro-Iranian unarmed organizations in Lebanon, Syria and Yemen, the likelihood of Israel being subjected to large-scale retaliation by Iran and its regional allies has increased. Israel's inability to simultaneously intercept missiles, drones and rockets from multiple directions and batches will require the U.S. to send a fleet of ships to the eastern Mediterranean and Red Sea regions to intercept attacks that threaten Israel from the sea. At the same time, it is necessary for the U.S. to increase military assistance to Israel to help Israel continue to maintain military pressure against Hamas in the Gaza Strip and Hezbollah in Lebanon. In the coming period, the U.S. is expected to further increase its military commitment and strategic attention to the region surrounding Israel.
Haniyeh's death has brought new uncertainty to the situation in the Middle East, and is likely to fuel larger conflicts between regional actors in the future. The international community and the related actors in the Middle East should closely follow developments, and urgently establish bridges and channels for communication between conflicting parties to ease the tension.