EU flags are seen outside the European Commission in Brussels, Belgium, January 6, 2023. /Xinhua
Editor's note: Freddie Reidy, a special commentator for CGTN, is a freelance writer based in London, who studied history and the history of art at the University of Kent, Canterbury, and specialized in international politics.The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.
On August 28, the European Union's (EU) top diplomats and defense ministers held informal talks in Belgium's capital, Brussels, instead of the originally scheduled Budapest, Hungary.This sparked controversy before the delegates even attended the first item on the summit program.
As with many multilateral conferences with rotating hosts and chairs, some summits have a habit of going more smoothly than others. For the convening of Europe's foreign and defense ministers, the issue of the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia loomed large.
Since Hungary assumed its turn to hold the presidency of the Council of the European Union, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orban has embarked on a world tour, declaring that "Peace will not come by itself in the Russia-Ukraine war; someone has to make it [happen]," but also stating that "I am not negotiating on behalf of anyone."
Orban has frequently clashed with EU leaders in the past over domestic matters. Meanwhile, he seems to have the closest relationship among EU leaders with Russia's President, Vladmir Putin.
Like other world leaders, such as Israel's former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Orban's solo mission to Moscow was viewed by critics as a valuable opportunity for burnishing a leader's personal image, a leader on the world stage, deflected from diplomatic political challenges; but a recent slip in elections this year sounded alarm bells.
However, Orban's isolation within the EU was made more apparent by the swift action of the High Representative of the European Union for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy, Josep Borrell, who announced the relocation of the summit to Brussels, stripping Budapest of the honor. However, the move appears to have rapidly backfired and has cast a shadow over the week's proceedings before they have even got underway.
Regional observers may have anticipated such a move, but the fact that the unilateral nature of the decision was made by the EU's Central Commission rather than the EU heads of government caused consternation among members and pulled the curtain back on the wider reality of a power struggle at the heart of the bloc.
This photo taken on April 13, 2024, shows a city view of Budapest, Hungary. /Xinhua
Since the departure of Angela Merkel, EU unity has only been found at the last moment of any given crisis, and there is a lack of cohesiveness which had previously allowed it to act as one and not react. Central to this is a fracture in the Franco-German alliance, a traditional bedrock of bloc unity. The situation has been frustrated by the domestic political situation in both Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Germany and President Emmanuel Macron's France, where approval ratings are at rock bottom. On condemnation of Borrell's decision though, consensus was found alongside other western European states, Italy and Spain.
Across other members, the eastern states, closest to the conflict zone, typically represent the hawkish flank to Orban's overtures and had even proposed the talks be held in Western Ukraine. The schism caused by Borrell though, was clumsy diplomacy and hard to have imagined in previous years.
Then, the mood of leaders would have been gauged before a decision was reached. On this subject though, the Commission showed insensitivity. Perhaps in part due to recent Franco-German discontent, which has frequently spilled over into the press on a number of occasions, when President Macron notably stated that "Europe clearly faces a moment when it will be necessary not to be cowards" it drew a sharp rebuke from German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius who stated, "We don't need really, from my perspective at least, talk about boots on the ground or having more courage or less courage." Perhaps here at least, the EU has unwittingly forged consensus.
The fissures in the EU's response to the handling of the Orban affair represent greater challenges which the conflict presents. "Will sovereign territory on the EU boarder of Ukraine be respected in the event of an escalation?" "Has Ukraine crossed a red line by conducting operations in the Kursk region of Russia?" And most fundamentally of all, "is it time for Ukraine's allies to apply pressure on Kyiv to begin talks on a negotiated settlement?"
Little accord can be seen at the moment, but it is of note that alongside EU members, NATO's two largest European military members Turkey and the United Kingdom will also be in attendance. Some will hope that the UK's traditional balancing act between Berlin and Paris will be resumed at a time of division within the bloc.
Ukraine unquestionably has been the biggest external challenge of the European Union since 2016 and this summit will be critical in staking out the bloc's position on the issue. The build up to the conference has been fraught, as Hungary's Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto characterized the relocation decision by Brussels as like "being in a kindergarten."
But with the potential of a repeat of the appointment of Donald Trump as U.S. President, EU foreign and defense chiefs will feel an additional impetus to set the tone ahead of November's elections… and who knows, an EU leader able to communicate between Brussels and the Kremlin could be viewed by fellow EU leaders as an asset and not a liability.
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