Explainer: Chinese, U.S. commanders hold talks to avoid miscalculation in South China Sea

Chinese and American military commanders held a long-anticipated talk on Tuesday, marking the resumption of all military communication mechanisms agreed by the heads of state of the two countries at the San Francisco meeting in November 2023.

General Wu Yanan, commander of the People's Liberation Army's (PLA) Southern Theater Command held a video call with U.S. Indo-Pacific Commander Admiral Samuel Paparo and the two sides exchanged "in-depth views on issues of common concern," according to the Chinese Defense Ministry.

In November last year, the two heads of state met in San Francisco and agreed to restore military communication mechanisms. China and the U.S. have multiple military communication mechanisms, including high-level communication between the two militaries, working meetings between the defense departments, the China-U.S. Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) work group meeting, and calls between theater-level leaders of the two militaries.

Tuesday's teleconference marked the resumption of all four military communication mechanisms. The high-level communication between the two militaries took place on May 31 when then Chinese Defense Minister met with U.S. Defense Secretary during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore, the 17th China-U.S. Defense Policy Coordination Talks took place in January in Washington, D.C., and a MMCA work group meeting took place in April in Hawaii.

Expert: Theater-level talk aims to manage South China Sea interactions

The jurisdiction of China's Southern Theater Command includes areas such as the South China Sea and Taiwan, and U.S.' Indo-Pacific Command's area of responsibility also covers the South China Sea, making the possibility of conflict between the two commands in this region quite high. 

Zhang Junshe, a military expert said that direct communication between the two commanders, who directly oversee front-line naval and air forces, can help reduce misunderstandings between the two militaries.

In March of this year, the "South China Sea Strategic Situation Probing Initiative," an international research network, released a report on the U.S. military activities in the South China Sea in 2023. The report mentioned several presences of U.S. aircraft carriers, such as USS Nimitz, USS Ronald Reagan, and USS Carl Vinson, all of which are part of the U.S. Pacific Fleet.

In addition to sending aircraft carriers to the South China Sea, the U.S. Indo-Pacific Command also frequently dispatches military aircraft to conduct close-in reconnaissance and sends warships to intrude into Chinese territorial waters. 

In May this year, the USS Halsey, a guided-missile destroyer entered the Xisha Islands in the South China Sea. At the time, China's Southern Theater Command organized naval and air forces to track, monitor, and warn the U.S. ship to leave. In August, the Southern Theater Command also organized joint patrols in the air and sea areas near Huangyan Dao.

Zhang noted that during communication between theater-level leaders, both sides would discuss their most pressing concerns regarding maritime and air security. China will make it clear to the U.S. that they cannot send warships and aircraft into waters near China's islands and reefs in the South China Sea and that the U.S. should restrain its front-line naval and air forces, strictly adhere to international law, and respect China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights.

U.S. 'deterrence' strategy towards China sparks regional tension

Zhang noted that beyond these practical exchanges, China and the U.S. also need to engage in deep communication at the cognitive level. 

Samuel Paparo, who comes from a military family and served in Afghanistan, subscribes to the doctrine of "military supremacy." At this year's Shangri-La Dialogue, Paparo stated that deterrence is the cornerstone of modern military strategy and is a way of seeking peace. In contrast, China's former ambassador to the U.S., Cui Tiankai, shared his understanding of deterrence at the same conference. 

Cui remarked that deterrence is merely a tool or means, but what truly matters is how we view the world. He said that if countries see each other as potential or actual adversaries, then deterrence will inevitably turn into a real threat, or even open conflict. However, if the goal is to work together for a more stable, peaceful, and prosperous world, then deterrence becomes largely unnecessary.

The stark difference in their viewpoints highlights a significant cognitive gap between China and the U.S., one that requires in-depth dialogue for mutual understanding, said Zhang.

In April this year, the New York Times published an article detailing how the Biden administration has ramped up "deterrence" against China in the Indo-Pacific region. This includes reorganizing the U.S. Marine Corps in Japan to have the capability to attack naval ships, deploying U.S. marines in Australia, and gaining access to several airports and naval bases in the Philippines. 

Paparo has said that these actions strengthen the power of the U.S. and its allies, ensuring that the U.S. and its allies would win any conflict in the Western Pacific.

Experts analyzed that this strategy shows that the U.S. tries to stir up regional tensions by involving other nations. While other countries may express verbal support, they are unlikely to take much concrete action.

For example, on August 7 of this year, the U.S., together with the Philippines, Australia and Canada, conducted a joint sea and air exercise in the South China Sea. This was the first exercise in the South China Sea involving these four countries, with the U.S. stating the need to unite against the "challenges" posed by China. However, the U.S. dispatched the USS Lake Erie, a guided-missile cruiser that has been in service since 1993 and is scheduled for retirement in 2025. Canada sent the frigate HMCS Montréal, which entered service in 1994 and is also nearing the end of its service life. The Philippines dispatched patrol ships, including the BRP Ramon Alcaraz, which originally served with the U.S. Coast Guard before being decommissioned and sold to the Philippines in 2012. Australia, on the other hand, did not send any ship and only deployed a patrol aircraft.