Handheld pager explosions in Lebanon: A new era of conflict in the ME?

Editor's note: Adam O. Erol, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a distinguished columnist known for his deep expertise in China, the Middle East, and Türkiye's foreign policies. His diverse background includes journalism and politics, enriching his analysis and commentary. This article reflects the author's opinions and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

On September 17, Lebanon was rocked by large-scale handheld pager explosions, which occurred in various parts of the country, including the capital, Beirut. In a swift response, Hezbollah issued a statement holding Israel "fully responsible" for the incident, even as the Israeli government had yet to issue an official response.

The timing and method of these explosions raise critical questions about whether this marks a new phase in the long-standing Israel-Lebanon conflict or even a broader evolution in how regional conflicts are conducted.

A new form of conflict?

Handheld pager explosions represent a distinct shift from conventional military conflict in the region. Historically, the conflict between Israel and Lebanon has involved more traditional methods of warfare – cross-border skirmishes, rocket attacks, and airstrikes. Introducing this form of remote, distributed sabotage is alarming, as it could signal a new asymmetrical warfare strategy designed to create widespread fear and uncertainty without direct military engagement.

These explosions differ from traditional methods of conflict in their ability to target civilian populations with precision and cause psychological harm. Using handheld pagers, a communication tool, as a vehicle for attacks, the perpetrators have introduced an unpredictable and omnipresent form of danger.

This creates a heightened sense of vulnerability, as civilians and security forces alike are left to wonder if everyday devices could be used as weapons. The psychological impact of this new form of conflict cannot be overstated, as it introduces a level of uncertainty and fear not associated with conventional warfare tactics like missile attacks or ground invasions.

Moreover, this attack is more challenging to trace and respond to, requiring less direct engagement between military forces. The covert nature of these explosions allows for a broader range of potential perpetrators, whether state-sponsored or non-state actors, to instigate violence while avoiding immediate retaliation.

If this method becomes more common in the region, it could lead to a significant shift in how conflicts are waged – away from large-scale military operations and toward decentralized, low-cost attacks that undermine national security without requiring the full deployment of military resources.

The broader impact: escalating tensions and regional implications

In the context of the ongoing Israel-Lebanon conflict, these explosions carry significant implications. First and foremost, they will likely exacerbate the already tense relationship between Hezbollah and Israel. Hezbollah's swift accusation against Israel could lead to retaliatory actions by the group, further escalating the cycle of violence that has characterized the relationship between the two actors for decades.

Even if Israel is not directly responsible for the explosions, Hezbollah's public blaming of Israel could serve as a pretext for further military actions along the border, increasing the likelihood of full-scale conflict.

Additionally, these explosions come at a time of heightened tensions across the region. Israel's recent military operations in Gaza, Lebanon, and Syria have left many on edge, while Lebanon continues to grapple with a severe economic crisis and political instability. The introduction of this new form of attack, particularly in the heart of Beirut, creates a perfect storm of insecurity and instability that could destabilize the entire region.

The explosions also raise concerns about the potential involvement of other regional actors or external powers. If Israel is proven to be involved, it could spark broader condemnation from other Arab nations and provoke retaliatory actions from Iran, Hezbollah's primary backer.

On the other hand, if another state or non-state actor is responsible, it could signal the entry of new players into the Israel-Lebanon conflict, further complicating the already volatile situation. In either scenario, the potential for wider regional escalation is high, with each new incident increasing the likelihood of a broader confrontation involving multiple actors.

This incident also highlights the fragility of Lebanon's current political and security apparatus. As a nation already struggling with the aftermath of the 2020 Beirut port explosion and ongoing economic collapse, these new attacks are a reminder of how vulnerable Lebanon remains to external interference and internal destabilization.

The Lebanese government's ability to respond effectively to these attacks will be a crucial indicator of whether the country can maintain its fragile security or is at risk of descending further into chaos.

In summary, the handheld pager explosions across Lebanon mark a dangerous evolution in the Israel-Lebanon conflict, signaling the potential onset of a new form of asymmetrical warfare that could have far-reaching implications. The use of everyday technology as a tool for violence introduces a new layer of fear and instability, one that is difficult to combat through conventional military means. This shift in tactics could not only escalate tensions between Israel and Hezbollah but also destabilize the broader region as actors scramble to adapt to this new form of conflict.

The international community must respond by encouraging dialogue and cooperation among regional actors to prevent further escalation. While the immediate impact of these explosions is felt in Lebanon, their reverberations could soon be felt across the entire Middle East, making it imperative for swift and coordinated action to contain the fallout and seek long-term solutions to these emerging forms of conflict.

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