Lebanon blasts: An upend in the Middle East conflict

Editor's note: Bobby Naderi, a special commentator on current affairs for CGTN, is a London-based journalist, guest contributor in print, radio and television, and documentary filmmaker. The article reflects the author's opinions, and not necessarily the views of CGTN.

On September 17, massive explosions caused by handheld pagers shook Beirut and other cities in Lebanon. The coordinated blasts killed 12 people and injured thousands. A day later, the country was rocked by a second wave of blasts, this time linked to hand-held radios, which killed at least 20 people, with more than 450 injured.

Lebanon's military group Hezbollah blamed Israel, saying it was "fully responsible" for the complex and sophisticated attacks. Though Israel has declined to comment, the sophistication of the operations suggests that a state actor with advanced intelligence capabilities carried them out.

The electronic pagers were reportedly manufactured by the Taiwan-based company Gold Apollo, but the company's founder denied that they made the devices. Instead, a European distributor Budapest-based BAC Consulting KFT appears to have been involved, which raises questions about the integrity of the supply chain. It seems likely that either the electronic devices were intercepted during shipment, or BAC could have unknowingly sold tampered devices.

Cyber and psychological warfare

Historically, conflicts between Israel and Lebanon have mostly been about territory and ideology. The 2006 Lebanon War, for instance, was all about airstrikes, artillery fire, and limited ground invasions. The coordinated pager assault, however, is a whole new game, and a serious security breach for Hezbollah.

Using low-tech means of communications like pagers and hand-held radios to set off explosions shows a shift in the way the Israel-Lebanon conflict is unfolding. It's not just about targeting the infrastructure anymore; it's about instilling anxiety, panic, and uncertainty in the civilian populace. This kind of strategy, in contrast to conventional military strikes, focuses on common telecommunication platforms, making it more difficult to discriminate between civilian and military targets.

This strategy aligns with broader global trends, as conflicts are increasingly getting more and more digital and ambiguous, and that makes it hard to figure out who's military and who's not. It reminds us of the 2009 Stuxnet malware attack on Iran's nuclear plants. But here's the kicker: the attack in this case targeted people and communication networks, which instilled public fear and anxiety.

If this is the beginning of a new phase in the conflict, it may force both sides into unchartered territory where civilians are intentionally targeted for psychological warfare rather than merely being collateral damage. Hezbollah has been quick to accuse Israel, demonstrating how fast both sides could start to brace for the next phase of inventive and unpredictable assaults.

A precedent for a wider war?

Exploding pagers and walkie-talkies don't win wars but they can easily pave the way for a wider war in the region.

Iran-backed Hezbollah controls southern Lebanon, where it has been fighting with Israel across the border. Any reaction will be crucial in determining if the cascading explosions of hand-held devices serves as the catalyst for a wider conflict. The group may respond not only with guerilla warfare and rockets but also with asymmetric techniques of its own that might extend the conflict to other theaters in the region.

Most clearly, the prospect of Hezbollah retaliation, which might target both military and civilian facilities, could be a prelude to a wider attack on the Israel-Lebanon border. International tensions and the potential of proxy conflicts might worsen if other actors are also lured into a battle that crosses traditional military boundaries. Lest we forget, Israel has declared the start of a "new phase" of the war as its army turns its attention to the northern front with Lebanon. 

With that in mind, consider it a kind of hell on Earth that for the United States a wider war between Israel and Hezbollah would also serve to deflect international focus and pressure from the ongoing crises in Gaza and Ukraine. Considering this, the two waves of blasts might be a component of a broader plan to reaffirm unwavering support for Israel, undermine Iran's influence by entangling it in yet another expensive and resource-draining conflict in the region, and guarantee American supremacy in the narrative of global conflict.

Even though there isn't enough evidence to make a firm conclusion, the incidents' date, context, and possible advantages point to the U.S. as a possible major actor and benefactor. It is part of a larger pattern of U.S. foreign policy maneuvers in which indirect actions or clandestine activities serve as pretexts for larger conflicts. As demonstrated by the cases of Iraq and Syria, the war party in Washington has repeatedly demonstrated that it is willing to use instability to accomplish its global geopolitical goals.

At least one thing is obvious: The war party has an extensive military and intelligence network that enables it to conduct such covert operations. It is impossible to completely rule out the possibility of direct or indirect U.S. orchestration through manipulation of regional actors. The stakes have never been higher.

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