Trust crisis looms over 2024 U.S. election as skepticism persists

The fairness of the 2024 U.S. presidential election has become a key point of concern for voters across the nation, echoing the skepticism that followed the 2020 election. With trust in the electoral system at a significant low, there is concern that such distrust threatens to impact voter participation and election outcomes.

Public confidence, shaken by allegations of voter fraud and partisan disputes, has led to a deep divide in perceptions of electoral integrity. A Pew Research Center study shows that about 61 percent of Americans believe the 2024 election will be conducted fairly. However, a significant split exists between party lines: 77 percent of Democrats express confidence in the election's fairness, compared to only 47 percent of Republicans.

This disparity is a continuation of the mistrust sown after the 2020 election, when repeated claims of fraud – primarily from Republican leaders – led to recounts in multiple states. Despite the lack of evidence to substantiate these allegations, the narrative of a rigged system remains potent, especially within the Republican base. Former President Donald Trump's 2024 campaign continues to raise these concerns, calling for heightened scrutiny over election procedures, which could further erode trust in the system.

Social media platforms such as Facebook and X have played a role in amplifying these doubts. Unverified claims about voter fraud, election tampering and foreign interference continue to circulate widely.

A Brennan Center report highlights how, since 2020, misinformation about the election process has led to threats against election workers and broader disinformation campaigns aimed at undermining public confidence, with many Republican voters particularly susceptible to these narratives. The report also notes that claims of foreign interference have taken root, further deepening mistrust among certain segments of the population.

The political polarization in the U.S. has also exacerbated this trust deficit. Voters are not just divided over policies but over the very foundation of democratic governance – the election process.

Republicans, still reeling from the 2020 loss, remain skeptical of election mechanics, particularly mail-in voting, which became a focal point during the 2022 midterm elections. In response, many states revised their voting laws to tighten oversight, especially around absentee ballots.

Democrats, on the other hand, view these measures as potential voter suppression tactics rather than efforts to safeguard election integrity, leading to ongoing ideological clashes.

In Georgia, the state has reduced the window for requesting absentee ballots, shortened the period for early voting in runoff elections and imposed stricter voter ID requirements for absentee ballots. While proponents say these changes can help increase transparency, critics argue that they disproportionately affect minority and low-income voters who may struggle to meet the new requirements or navigate the more complex voting process.

This environment, where election outcomes may not be universally accepted, threatens the legitimacy of future elections and deepens the existing political divide. "Election denialism is at the forefront" of the 2024 elections, "before most voters have even cast their ballots," Richard L. Hasen, professor of law and political science at the University of California, Los Angeles, wrote in an opinion piece in Politico.

"This supercharged distrust could lead to further violence and instability and help cement the kind of corrosive election denialism that does lasting damage to our democracy," Hasen noted.

The perception that elections are vulnerable to tampering remains widespread, particularly among voters already inclined to doubt the system. In a Reuters/Ipsos poll conducted in May, over two-thirds of those polled said they were concerned about extremist violence after the election.

As the nation approaches the 2024 election, restoring trust in the electoral process will be crucial to ensuring voter participation and preventing further political fragmentation. Experts say without addressing these concerns, the U.S. faces the risk of a contested election and a growing mistrust in democratic institutions.